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WPI to be around 3 per cent in FY 25, say economists

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Chennai, May 15 (IANS) The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is expected to be in the region of 2-3 per cent over the next two quarters and average at around 3 per cent for FY25, top economists at two credit rating agencies said as the Commerce and Industry Ministry announced the WPI for April 2024 was 1.26 per cent.

Reacting to the numbers, Suman Chowdhury, Chief Economist and Head, Research, Acuite Ratings & Research said: “WPI trajectory in India is finally showing signs of a pickup, rising to 1.26 per cent YoY (year-on-year) in April ’24 from 0.53 per cent YoY in March ’24.”

He said this is the highest WPI print in the last 13 months and has been driven by a reversal from deflation to inflation at 1.4 per cent YoY in fuel and power inflation; a rise in global crude prices and its derivatives along with rising higher power tariffs are the factors behind the rise in this category.

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“Expectedly, the wholesale food group inflation has also seen a rise to 5.5 per cent YoY, reflecting higher vegetable and fruit prices,” he said.

The wholesale inflation for manufactured goods has persisted in the contractionary zone at minus 0.4 per cent YoY, though the extent of deflation has reduced.

Since March ’23, i.e. for the last 14 months, manufacturing inflation has remained in a deflation mode, implying benign input costs for the industrial segment in the absence of a strong global demand.

However, a stronger domestic economy and demand may soon lead to a firm-up in manufacturing inflation, Chowdhury opined.

According to him, with a rising outlook for fuel and power as well as manufacturing inflation in the near term, WPI inflation is set to test higher levels in the current year.

Overall, the WPI inflation print will also be shaped by the trend in the food category and is expected to remain between 2.0 per cent-3.0 per cent over the next two quarters, unless there are major surprises on commodity prices, he said.

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“This will also make it difficult for headline CPI inflation to moderate towards 4.5 per cent in FY25, thereby making it also difficult for RBI to take a call on rate cut in the first half of the year,” Chowdhury said.

According to Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CARE Ratings, the wholesale inflation of fuel and power entered positive territory after 11 months in April.

Brent crude oil prices had touched $90/bbl in April due to supply chain disruptions in the Middle East amid geopolitical conflicts.

While Brent crude prices have moderated in the past couple of weeks, the recent uptick in global commodity prices, especially industrial metal prices, warrants close monitoring as it can result in higher input costs. Industrial metal prices have risen by about 20 per cent in the past three months, Sinha said.

“Going ahead, the base effect will remain adverse over the next two months, thereby resulting in higher WPI inflation. External risks emerging from ongoing geopolitical tensions also need to be monitored, given the risk they can pose to supply chains,” she said.

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According to Sinha, the outlook for food inflation has brightened due to anticipations of a normal monsoon, which is expected to bolster agricultural production. However, monitoring the monsoon’s temporal and spatial distribution is critical.

“We expect WPI inflation to average around 3 per cent in FY25,” she said.

–IANS

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This symptomless herpes virus can harm newborns, organ transplant & HIV patients

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New Delhi, July 6 (IANS) Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a common and symptomless herpes virus that can cause serious harm to newborn babies and people with impaired immune systems like organ transplant and HIV patients, said experts here on Saturday.

CMV belongs to the herpes virus family and can infect people of all ages. It spreads through body fluids and usually remains dormant, causing no symptoms or a mild illness characterised by fever, sore throat, fatigue, or swollen glands.

But it can prove to be risky for some people. CMV is the most commonly transmitted virus to a developing foetus.

In people with weaker immune systems, CMV can produce serious symptoms affecting the eyes, lungs, oesophagus, intestines, stomach, or liver.

“If a pregnant woman contracts CMV for the first time during pregnancy (primary infection), there is a risk of transmitting the virus to the unborn baby. This can result in congenital CMV infection, which may cause developmental problems, hearing loss, vision impairment, and other serious health issues in the baby,” Dr Neha Rastogi Panda, Consultant-Infectious Diseases, Fortis Memorial Research Institute, Gurugram, told IANS.

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“CMV is a common virus that infects over 90 per cent of the Indian population during pregnancy (intrauterine) or early childhood. While typically harmless in healthy individuals, CMV can become a serious threat to people with HIV/AIDS or those undergoing organ transplants (especially kidney and bone marrow). In these cases, the virus can reactivate and cause a range of health problems,” added Dr Rajeev Gupta, Director – Internal Medicine at the CK Birla Hospital (R), Delhi.

CMV in people with low immunity on steroids, cancer, and dialysis can reactivate and cause symptoms like fever, pneumonia, gastrointestinal symptoms, and visual effects and problems.

Dr Neha said that CMV is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in people with weakened immune systems.

While there is no widely available vaccine specifically to prevent the initial infection with CMV, antiviral medications administered during organ transplant procedures significantly reduce the risk of CMV reactivation.

The doctors called for maintaining hygiene by washing hands regularly, practising safe sex, not sharing items like toothbrushes, and avoiding contact with bodily fluids.

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–IANS

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FM Sitharaman to present Union Budget on July 23

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New Delhi, July 6 (IANS) Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget 2024-25 on July 23, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju announced on Saturday.

The Budget Session of Parliament will start on July 22 and extend till August 12.

“Hon’ble President of India, on the recommendation of the Government of India, has approved the proposal for summoning of both the Houses of Parliament for the Budget Session, 2024 from 22nd July 2024 to 12 August 2024 (Subject to exigencies of Parliamentary Business). Union Budget, 2024-25 will be presented in Lok Sabha on 23 July 2024,” the Parliamentary Affairs Minister said on X.

After having presented an interim budget ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, the Finance Minister will now present the full budget for 2024-25 that ensures the economy continues on the high growth trajectory and creates more jobs during the Modi 3.0 government.

Given the low fiscal deficit, the hefty Rs 2.11 lakh crore dividend from the RBI and the buoyancy in taxes, the Finance Minister has a lot of headroom for pushing ahead with policies aimed at accelerating growth and implementing social welfare schemes aimed at uplifting the poor.

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Prime Minister Modi has already declared that “the next 5 years will be a decisive fight against poverty.”

Sitharaman will be presenting the budget at a time when the Indian economy has clocked a robust 8.2 per cent growth in 2023-24, which is the fastest among the world’s major economies, and inflation coming down to below 5 per cent. The RBI has stated that the economy is headed to an over 8 per cent growth trajectory.

The fiscal deficit has also been reduced from more than 9 per cent of GDP in 2020-21 to the targeted level of 5.1 per cent for 2024-25. This has strengthened the macroeconomic fundamentals of the economy. S&P Global Rating raised India’s sovereign rating outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’, citing the country’s improving finances and strong economic growth.

–IANS

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Luxury housing surged to 41 pc of total sales in H1 2024 in India

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New Delhi, July 6 (IANS) India’s real estate market witnessed higher luxury housing sales in H1 2024 due to the robust economy and growing demand for luxury lifestyles.

A new report from property consultant firm Knight Frank titled ‘India Real Estate: Residential and Office (January – June 2024),’ said that luxury residential sales surged in the first half of 2024.

Housing sales above Rs 1 crore accounted for 41 per cent of total sales in H1 2024.

This figure was 30 per cent in the same period in 2023.

In the first half of 2024, residential sales in the top eight cities of the country, including Mumbai, Delhi-NCR, Bengaluru, Pune, and Hyderabad, have seen an increase of 11 per cent compared to the same period last year.

A total of 1,73,241 homes were sold in H1 2024, the highest sales figure in 11 years.

According to the report, 27 per cent of total residential sales in the first six months of 2024 were budget homes, while the figure was 32 per cent in the same period of 2023.

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Mumbai is the largest residential market in the country and 47,259 houses were sold in H1 2024.

Demand for houses costing more than Rs 1 crore in the country’s financial capital has increased by 117 per cent compared to last year.

During this period, there was an increase of 16 per cent in sales on an annual basis.

While 28,998 units have been sold in Delhi-NCR, 27,404 units have been sold in Bengaluru.

These three cities account for 59 per cent of total residential sales.

Gulam Zia, Senior Executive Director, Research, Advisory, Infrastructure, and Valuation, Knight Frank India said, “The robust performance in the residential market resulted in the sale of over 1,73,000 units in the first half of 2024, marking a decade-high record. This growth is firmly anchored by the premium category which saw a significant rise moving from 15 per cent in H1 2018 to 34 per cent in H1 2024.”

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“Looking forward, we understand that the economic conditions will remain stable with the Indian economy continuing to grow, we expect sales momentum to remain robust for the rest of the year,” he added.

–IANS

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FPIs infuse Rs 7,962 crore in equity this month, Rs 6,304 crore in debts

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New Delhi, July 6 (IANS) Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 7,962 crore in equity this month (till July 5) while their debt investments in the same period stood at Rs 6,304 crore, market watchers said on Saturday, citing the NSDL data.

This year, FPIs have invested Rs 11,162 crore in equity till now while the FPI investment in debt for the same period stands at a massive Rs 74,928 crore.

The inclusion of Indian government bonds in the JP Morgan Emerging Markets (EM) Government Bond Index and the front-running by investors have contributed to this divergence in equity and debt inflows, according to market experts.

Milind Muchhala, Executive Director, Julius Baer India, said India remains an attractive investment destination amid a healthy economic and earnings growth momentum, and the FPIs cannot afford to ignore the markets for too long.

“In the event of a global risk-on environment, triggered by increasing expectations of rate cuts, it could lead to increasing flows to EM equities, with India expected to emerge as one of the bigger beneficiaries of the flows,” he added.

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In the fortnight ending June 30, FPIs bought heavily in telecom and financial services.

They were also buyers in autos, capital goods, healthcare and IT.

Selling was seen in metals, mining and power which had run up, too, fast in recent months.

–IANS

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More foreign firms enlist to invest in India as infra projects fuel growth

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New Delhi, July 6 (IANS) More large foreign manufacturers of heavy machinery used in the infrastructure sector figure in the list of more than 15,000 companies that have registered to set up units in the country during June, according to data compiled by the ministry of corporate affairs.

Senior officials see this as the outcome of the increasing demand for such machinery as the government is making massive investments in highways, ports, airports and railway projects.

It also reflects the success of the Government’s Make-in-India and Aatmanirbhar policy that encourages foreign companies to start operations in the country, an official said.

UK’s Auger Torque Europe Ltd, one of the foreign companies which has registered for starting operations in India, manufactures earth drills and attachments and is part of Germany’s Kinshofer Group which makes attachments for truck cranes and excavators.

Japan’s Tomoe Engineering Co Ltd, which is on the new list, manufactures machinery, equipment and chemicals.

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Another Japanese company, Kawada Industries, Inc. is part of the KTI Kawada Group, which is the business of building, maintaining and preserving infrastructure.

Besides, a Russian heavy machinery manufacturer and a UAE-based energy company have also registered to set up operations in India.

Institut fuer Oekologie, Technik and Innovation Gmbh, also in the new list of foreign companies keen to set up base in India, provides testing and certification services for different industries.

These foreign companies are expected to bring in new technology and will complement the efforts of Indian companies that are operating in the infrastructure sector, a senior official pointed out.

Big-ticket infrastructure projects in the highways, railways and ports sector will continue to drive growth in the Indian economy as the Government has stepped up the outlay for these investments in the interim budget for 2024-25.

Government investments in large infrastructure projects create jobs and incomes that have a multiplier effect on the economy as demand for products such as steel and cement also goes up which leads to more private investments and employment. With the creation of additional jobs, the demand for consumer goods also increases leading to a further acceleration in the country’s economic growth rate.

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To ramp up the virtuous cycle of investment and job creation, the budget for 2023-24 had ramped up the capital expenditure outlay on infrastructure projects by 37.4 per cent to a whopping Rs 10 lakh crore from Rs 7.28 lakh crore in 2022-23.

The interim budget presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has further enhanced by 11.1 per cent the allocation for infrastructure projects to a whopping Rs 11.11 lakh crore to spur growth. The increase that comes on top of a large base of the previous year will result in massive investments to spur growth. The finance minister pointed out that this will also attract big investments from the private sector which will accelerate the growth momentum.

The interim budget provides for a Rs 2.52 lakh crore capital expenditure for Railways in 2024-25. The finance minister has announced the implementation of three major economic railway corridor programmes namely energy, mineral and cement corridors; port connectivity corridors; and high traffic density corridors.

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–IANS

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