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Will hardliner-reformist face-off in Iran's Presidential poll draw disenchanted voters to poll booths? (2nd Lead)

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New Delhi, June 27 (IANS) With Iran set to hold snap polls on Friday to elect the successor to late President Ebrahim Raisi, the contest, shaping up as a three-way race between two hardliners and a conservative, will head into a run-off, as per various surveys. However, they vary on the final positions of the contenders.

A bigger concern is the turnout. Authorities hope for a heavier ‘legitimising’ turnout, given the unprecedented low percentage of voting in the 2021 elections and parliamentary polls earlier this year.

A day before the election, four of the six approved candidates – three four hardliners/conservatives, of various intensities, and a reformist – remain in the race.

The top three contenders are former chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, Majles Speaker and former Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf (both hardliners), and cardiac surgeon Masoud Pezeshkian, who served as a minister in the Khatami regime (reformist).

Like some previous instances, some hardline candidates dropped out to coalesce support behind one strong (hardline) candidate.

The first was Vice President and Foundation of Martyrs and Veteran Affairs head Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi on late Wednesday and then, Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani on Thursday.

However, both, whose support was in single digits, did not express a choice between Jalili or Qalibaf.

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Cleric and former Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi remains in the race.

The turnout will be key. In 2021 – when Raisi won – it was 48.8 per cent – the lowest ever so far since the 1979 revolution. It came down to around 41 per cent in the two-round Majles election in March and May this year. Part of the disenchantment of voters is over social and economic issues and the debarment of reformist candidates.

However, known reformists like Ali Larijani and Eshaq Jahangiri or mavericks like former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were not allowed to contest this time too.

The predicted turnout, as per the surveys and analyses, depends on the orientation of the pollsters or analysts. Those by emigres, largely hostile to the present Iranian dispensation, claim a much lower turnout this time, but in-country groups, related to government institutions, are more sanguine, reporting a slight bump up.

However, they also do not predict any radical breakout.

It was perhaps for this that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Tuesday called for a “maximum” voter turnout in a message to the country’s “enemies”.

“The Islamic Republic has enemies. One thing that helps the Islamic Republic overcome its enemies is the elections. If a good turnout is seen in these elections, then it will make the Islamic Republic proud,” he said in his address at a religious function.

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On the candidates, the Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA), affiliated with the government’s Academic Centre of Education, Research, and Culture, in a survey published on Wednesday last week, forecast a 50 per cent turnout with Jalili first, and Pezeshkian second – slightly ahead of Qalibaf.

However, an update on Monday had Pezeshkian leading over Jalili, albeit by a small margin, while Qalibaf stayed in third place.

In both, none of the leading candidates was even the 30 per cent mark, indicating a run-off.

Meta, a polling organisation in the Imam Sadeq University in Tehran, in its survey published last week, had also forecast just over 50 per cent turnout, with Pezeshkian ahead – but over Qalibaf, while Jalili was in third place.

An update this week had the same positioning but with lower percentages, and claimed that in a run-off, Qalibaf would beat Pezeshkian, and Jalili too in a run-off.

A survey by the “privately-run” Shenaakht, published mid-June, predicted well over 50 per cent turnout, and Qalibaf on top and both Pezeshkian and Jalili tied in second place – over 10 percentage points behind.

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While for Jalili and Qalibaf, their closeness to Supreme Leader Khamenei and the IRGC background could weigh in their favour with their establishment and conservatives, Pezeshkian, whose presence seems geared at drawing reformist voters, may find the going tough, unless there is a massive turnout in his favour.

Despite endorsements by former Presidents Mohammad Khatami and Hasan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javed Zarif, his ethnic background – being an Azeri – could also cloud his chances. And then, his recent statements supporting Iran’s return to the nuclear deal and wider outreach to the West drew veiled censure from the Supreme Leader, who was scornful of those believing that “everything good comes from the US”. The other two peg more hopes on the region and from BRICS and the SCO.

Pezeshkian also strayed from prevalent consensus by expressing support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.

But, no matter who wins, any radical change in domestic and foreign policies is unlikely since the President is only the second in command. Also, the Supreme Leader has to certify the winner first.

(Vikas Datta can be contacted at vikas.d@ians.in)

–IANS

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Pak's macroeconomic environment was challenging in 2023: Central bank

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Islamabad, July 6 (IANS) Pakistan’s macroeconomic environment in the calendar year 2023 remained challenging amid rising inflation, weak foreign exchange inflows, pressures on external account and local currency, and low business confidence, particularly in the first half, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said.

However, the policy measures and regulatory interventions that were taken to address growing imbalances coupled with securing a nine-month stand-by agreement from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) helped improve the macroeconomic conditions in the second half of 2023, the SBP said in its financial stability review for 2023, Xinhua news agency reported.

Inflation started falling, economic growth recovered, and the exchange rate stabilised towards the year-end, the central bank said in the report.

Against this backdrop, the financial sector exhibited strong growth and performance, and maintained financial soundness and operational resilience, it added.

The asset base of the financial sector expanded by 27 per cent in 2023, mainly driven by the banking sector, according to the report.

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–IANS

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Flood alert for Pakistan provinces as monsoon season begins

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Islamabad, July 6 (IANS) Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued a warning about the potential for flash floods and urban flooding due to the ongoing torrential rain, marking the beginning of the monsoon season in various parts of the country.

The National Emergency Operation Centre of the NDMA anticipates that the ongoing rain may cause flash floods in local streams of Islamabad, parts of east Punjab, and northwest Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces, the authority said in a statement, Xinhua news agency reported.

The torrential rain may also cause urban flooding in several districts of the two provinces, including their densely populated capital cities, the statement added.

The NDMA also advised provincial disaster management authorities and local administrations to closely monitor the situation and take appropriate measures to safeguard the at-risk population, the statement read.

The NDMA also urged citizens to download its mobile application for disaster alerts, which provides notifications, guidelines, and precautionary measures to address urban flooding in their areas so they can stay alert and informed.

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–IANS

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Record 26 Indian-origin MPs set to enter UK Parliament

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New Delhi, July 6 (IANS) A record number of 26 Indian-origin MPs are set to enter the UK Parliament after Friday’s General Election results, marking a significant increase from 15, five years ago.

Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak, the first Indian-origin person to have served as the UK Prime Minister, leads the pack after having secured victory from Richmond and Northallerton constituency in Yorkshire.

Apart from Sunak, 25 other Indian-origin MPs — including 20 from the Labour Party and five Conservatives — also emerged victorious on Friday.

Priti Patel, Conservative MP of Gujarati descent, won from Witham, Essex. Patel, who has served in various capacities, including Secretary of State for International Development, has been representing the constituency since 2010.

Gagan Mohindra, a prominent politician from a Punjabi Hindu background, secured his seat in South West Hertfordshire. Mohindra has been a Conservative MP since 2019, following his initial election as a Parish Councillor in 2004.

Labour Party leader Seema Malhotra retained her Feltham and Heston constituency for a fourth term since 2011. Malhotra has held several shadow ministerial roles, including Shadow Minister for Skills and Further Education.

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Valerie Vaz, Labour leader of Goan origin, won the Walsall and Bloxwich constituency for the fifth time. Vaz, who has been an MP since 2010, has served as the Shadow Leader of the House of Commons.

Lisa Nandy retained her seat in Wigan, making her the constituency’s first female MP and one of the first Asian female MPs since 2010. She has served as the Shadow Cabinet Minister for International Development.

Nadia Whittome, who made history in 2019 as the UK’s youngest MP at the age of 23, was re-elected from Nottingham East.

Preet Kaur Gill, the UK’s first female Sikh MP, defeated Conservative Ashvir Sangha in Birmingham, a seat she has held since 2017. Gill has served as the Shadow Minister for Primary Care and Public Health.

Labour Party’s Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi retained his Slough constituency, although with a reduced victory margin.

Conservative leader Shivani Raja won the Leicester East constituency, where she was fielded against another Indian-origin Labour candidate, Rajesh Agrawal.

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44-year-old Conservative MP Suella Braverman, who was embroiled in controversies and dismissed by the party for her statements, won from the Fareham and Waterlooville constituency for the fourth consecutive time.

Additionally, other Indian-origin Labour MPs to be elected to the UK’s House of Parliament include Navendu Mishra, Jas Athwal, Baggy Shanker, Satvir Kaur, Harpreet Uppal, Warinder Juss, Gurinder Josan, Kanishka Narayan, Sonia Kumar, Sureena Brackenbridge, Kirith Entwistle, Jeevun Sandher, Sojan Joseph and Murina Wilson.

–IANS

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Japan hopes Iran's new President will play 'constructive role' in stabilising situation in Middle East

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Tokyo, July 6 (IANS) The Japanese government on Saturday hoped that Iran, under its newly-elected President Masoud Pezeshkian, will play a “constructive role” in easing tensions and stabilising the situation in the Middle East.

Pezeshkian emerged winner in the runoff of the presidential election held on Friday and was elected as the next President of the country.

“We hope that Iran, under President-elect Pezechkian, will play a constructive role in easing tensions and stabilizing the situation in the Middle East,” said the Japanese Foreign Ministry on Saturday.

“Based on our traditionally friendly relations with Iran, Japan will continue to make proactive diplomatic efforts toward easing tensions and stabilising the situation in the Middle East, and will also strengthen dialogue with the new Iranian government under President-elect Pezechkian,” it added.

In April, Tokyo had “strongly condemned” the escalation in the region following Iran’s attacks against Israel using drones and missiles citing that the peace and stability of the Middle East region remains of paramount importance to Japan.

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–IANS

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Iran, Hungary urge for refrainment from tension escalation in West Asia

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Tehran, July 6 (IANS) Iran and Hungary highlighted the necessity to refrain from the escalation of tension in the West Asia region.

In a phone call, Iranian caretaker Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani and Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto exchanged views on Friday about regional issues of common interest and bilateral ties, according to a statement released by the Iranian Foreign Ministry, reports Xinhua news agency.

Bagheri Kani stressed the need to enhance stability and refrain from the escalation of tension in West Asia, noting that the continuation of Israeli “crimes” against Palestinians and the recent escalations between Israel and Lebanon had placed the region in a new situation.

He warned that any new move to cause further tension in the region would work to the detriment of the “warmongers”.

Pointing to bilateral ties, Bagheri Kani said Iran and Hungary had always had good relations with each other, and the ties had been reflecting a positive and growing trend.

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The Hungarian Foreign Minister, for his part, stressed the need to step up efforts to prevent the intensification of the conflicts in the region.

He stressed the importance of diplomacy in bilateral relations and the international arena, welcoming the strengthening of the bilateral ties with Iran.

The Israeli army has been waging a large-scale offensive on Gaza since October 7, 2023, after Hamas carried out an unprecedented attack on the Israeli towns adjacent to the strip, killing nearly 1,200 people.

The Palestinian death toll from the ongoing Israeli attacks in the enclave has risen to 38,011, with 87,445 people injured, as updated by the health authorities in Gaza on Thursday.

Tension has mounted between Lebanon and Israel since October 8, 2023, after Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets toward Israel in support of the Hamas attacks on Israel, prompting Israel to respond by firing heavy artillery toward southeastern Lebanon.

–IANS

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