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Sharp movements ahead, trade cautiously

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New Delhi, May 5 (IANS) The week went by and had four trading days with a mid-week holiday on May 1, thereby making it two periods of two days each. The volatility witnessed was several notches higher than usual. Surprises one to note that just about 10 days ago, India VIX, which is the volatility index, crashed to a new low. Maybe it was the lull before the storm.

On Tuesday and Friday, NIFTY made new highs and then fell sharply, closing in the red. Not sure how one should read it, but the scene is not comfortable. At the end of the week, BSESENSEX gained 147.99 points or 0.20 per cent to close at 73,878.15 points, while NIFTY gained 55.90 points or 0.25 per cent to close at 22,475.85 points.

The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 0.55 per cent, 0.70 per cent and 0.61 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 1.99 per cent, while BSESMALLCAP was down 0.10 per cent. Plenty of mixed signals in the marketplace. Markets gained on two sessions and lost on two. Incidentally, gains and losses alternated with Monday and Thursday gaining while Tuesday and Friday were losing days.

The Indian Rupee lost eight paise or 0.10 per cent to close at Rs 83.42 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones was on a roller coaster ride with gains on four days and losses on one day. Wednesday saw the FED meet for its policy review meeting, where they decided on expected lines to keep interest rates unchanged.

After the meeting, the commentary spelt out very clearly that inflation higher than 2 per cent will not see any rate cuts. This saw markets rallying sharply on Thursday and Friday. One wonders why markets in the US are hell-bent on just a rate cut. One needs to see that economic data is red hot and points to a booming economy. Things could not be better. Why bother about a rate cut at all?

Coming to our markets and the crazy movement we witnessed last week. Tuesday, April 30, saw NIFTY make a new lifetime high at 22,783 points. The previous day’s close was 22,643 points.

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After the high, markets fell sharply and closed at 22,604 points and closed in the red, losing 39 points. BSESENSEX made a high at 75,111 points but did not make a new high. The previous day’s close was 74,671 points. From there, the market fell to 74,488 points, losing 183 points.

Friday, May 3, was even more volatile.

NIFTY made a new lifetime high yet again at 22,794 points against the previous day’s close of 22,648 points. It fell very sharply to close at 22,475 points, a loss of 319 points from the high and 173 points from the previous day’s close.

BSESENSEX made a high at 75,095 points against the previous day’s close of 74,611 points. From there, it fell very sharply to lose 1,217 points from the high and 610 points from the previous day’s close. Indeed, very volatile and a bit scary.

The week ahead has three primary issues tapping the capital markets. Indegene Limited is tapping the markets with Indegene Limited tapping the capital markets with its fresh issue for Rs 760 crore and an offer for sale of 2,39,32,732 shares in a price band of Rs 430-452.

The issue would open on Monday, May 6, and close on Wednesday, May 8. The fresh issue and offer for sale would raise Rs 1,841 crore at the top end of the price band.

The company provides digital-led commercialisation services for the life sciences industry, including bio-pharmaceutical, emerging biotech and medical devices companies, that assist them with drug development and clinical trials, regulatory submissions, pharmacovigilance and complaints management, and the sales and marketing of their products.

Indigene is an integrated solutions provider, and almost 85 per cent of its revenues come from its US subsidiary.

The company reported revenues of Rs 2,306 crore for the year ended March 23, an EBITDA of 19.69 per cent, and a Profit after-tax margin of 11.54 per cent. In absolute terms, the profit after tax was Rs 266.09 crore. The EPS on a fully diluted basis was Rs 11.97. At this EPS, the PE band for the issue is 35.92-37.78.

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There is no comparable company or peer set in the Indian space, while there are some comparable foreign companies globally. The share offers an opportunity for investors with a medium to long-term outlook. There could be listing pop, as well as available considering that markets are at lifetime highs or thereabouts.

The second issue is from Aadhar Housing Finance Limited. The issue is entirely an offer for the sale of Rs 2,800 crore. The price band is Rs 300-315. The selling shareholder is the promoter. This company was acquired from the DHFL group when they fell on bad times around 2016-17.

The company acquired was clean and had no issues while the group was struggling with various issues. The issue will open on Wednesday, May 8, and close on Friday, May 10. The company is a housing Finance company focused on the low-income housing segment with a cap on ticket size at Rs 15 lakh.

In terms of performance, the company reported a gross AUM of just under Rs 20,000 crore at the end of the nine-month period ended December 2023. A mix of the clients they serve is 60 per cent salaried and 40 per cent self-employed. The average ticket size is between Rs 9 lakh to 10 ten lakh.

The company reported an EPS of Rs 13.8 for the year ended March 2023, which on a fully diluted basis was Rs 13.4. The PE band for the issue of diluted earnings is 22.4-23.5. NAV for the company at the end of December 23 is Rs 107.6. The price to book at this NAV is 2.92 at the top end of the band.

Based on the post-issue, the NAV would improve to Rs 123.07 at the top end of the band, and the same ratio would be at 2.56 times the price to book. This compared more than favourably with the peer set. There is money to be made in the issue in the medium to long term. There would be some listing pop as well.

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The third issue is from TBO TEK Limited. It consists of a fresh issue of Rs 400 crore and an offer for sale of 1,25,06,797 equity shares. The price band is Rs 875-920. The issue would open on Wednesday, May 8, and close on Friday, May 10.

The company operates an online B2B travel portal distribution platform that connects buyers and sellers. It is present in the airline and hotel business currently. It earns a commission from the airlines whose tickets are sold on the platform while it charges a markup on the rooms sold on the platform.

The company is in a negative working capital cycle as it pays after receiving the money. It is adding new offerings on the platform and has recently added the Eurail on its platform recently.

The company reported an EPS of Rs 14.07 on a fully diluted basis for the year ended March 2023, and the PE band would be 62.19-65.39 on this EPS. There is no comparable peer in India in this space, and the listed players are basically online travel players like Make My Trip, Easy Trip and Yatra Online, who would be using the platform provided by TBO TEL Limited.

The issue offers scope on listing and in the medium to long term as well.

Coming to the markets, we are at a crossroads once again. On the upside, I would go long only if 22,800 on the NIFTY and 75,200 on the BSESENSEX are crossed and sustained. On the downside, immediate support exists at 22,100 points on NIFTY and 72,800 points on BSESENSEX. It is time to be cautious, as the wild gyrations last week are not giving comfort. The strategy would be to sell on any rallies and buy on sharp dips.

Trade cautiously.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)

–IANS

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Luxury housing surged to 41 pc of total sales in H1 2024 in India

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New Delhi, July 6 (IANS) India’s real estate market witnessed higher luxury housing sales in H1 2024 due to the robust economy and growing demand for luxury lifestyles.

A new report from property consultant firm Knight Frank titled ‘India Real Estate: Residential and Office (January – June 2024),’ said that luxury residential sales surged in the first half of 2024.

Housing sales above Rs 1 crore accounted for 41 per cent of total sales in H1 2024.

This figure was 30 per cent in the same period in 2023.

In the first half of 2024, residential sales in the top eight cities of the country, including Mumbai, Delhi-NCR, Bengaluru, Pune, and Hyderabad, have seen an increase of 11 per cent compared to the same period last year.

A total of 1,73,241 homes were sold in H1 2024, the highest sales figure in 11 years.

According to the report, 27 per cent of total residential sales in the first six months of 2024 were budget homes, while the figure was 32 per cent in the same period of 2023.

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Mumbai is the largest residential market in the country and 47,259 houses were sold in H1 2024.

Demand for houses costing more than Rs 1 crore in the country’s financial capital has increased by 117 per cent compared to last year.

During this period, there was an increase of 16 per cent in sales on an annual basis.

While 28,998 units have been sold in Delhi-NCR, 27,404 units have been sold in Bengaluru.

These three cities account for 59 per cent of total residential sales.

Gulam Zia, Senior Executive Director, Research, Advisory, Infrastructure, and Valuation, Knight Frank India said, “The robust performance in the residential market resulted in the sale of over 1,73,000 units in the first half of 2024, marking a decade-high record. This growth is firmly anchored by the premium category which saw a significant rise moving from 15 per cent in H1 2018 to 34 per cent in H1 2024.”

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“Looking forward, we understand that the economic conditions will remain stable with the Indian economy continuing to grow, we expect sales momentum to remain robust for the rest of the year,” he added.

–IANS

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FPIs infuse Rs 7,962 crore in equity this month, Rs 6,304 crore in debts

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New Delhi, July 6 (IANS) Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 7,962 crore in equity this month (till July 5) while their debt investments in the same period stood at Rs 6,304 crore, market watchers said on Saturday, citing the NSDL data.

This year, FPIs have invested Rs 11,162 crore in equity till now while the FPI investment in debt for the same period stands at a massive Rs 74,928 crore.

The inclusion of Indian government bonds in the JP Morgan Emerging Markets (EM) Government Bond Index and the front-running by investors have contributed to this divergence in equity and debt inflows, according to market experts.

Milind Muchhala, Executive Director, Julius Baer India, said India remains an attractive investment destination amid a healthy economic and earnings growth momentum, and the FPIs cannot afford to ignore the markets for too long.

“In the event of a global risk-on environment, triggered by increasing expectations of rate cuts, it could lead to increasing flows to EM equities, with India expected to emerge as one of the bigger beneficiaries of the flows,” he added.

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In the fortnight ending June 30, FPIs bought heavily in telecom and financial services.

They were also buyers in autos, capital goods, healthcare and IT.

Selling was seen in metals, mining and power which had run up, too, fast in recent months.

–IANS

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More foreign firms enlist to invest in India as infra projects fuel growth

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New Delhi, July 6 (IANS) More large foreign manufacturers of heavy machinery used in the infrastructure sector figure in the list of more than 15,000 companies that have registered to set up units in the country during June, according to data compiled by the ministry of corporate affairs.

Senior officials see this as the outcome of the increasing demand for such machinery as the government is making massive investments in highways, ports, airports and railway projects.

It also reflects the success of the Government’s Make-in-India and Aatmanirbhar policy that encourages foreign companies to start operations in the country, an official said.

UK’s Auger Torque Europe Ltd, one of the foreign companies which has registered for starting operations in India, manufactures earth drills and attachments and is part of Germany’s Kinshofer Group which makes attachments for truck cranes and excavators.

Japan’s Tomoe Engineering Co Ltd, which is on the new list, manufactures machinery, equipment and chemicals.

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Another Japanese company, Kawada Industries, Inc. is part of the KTI Kawada Group, which is the business of building, maintaining and preserving infrastructure.

Besides, a Russian heavy machinery manufacturer and a UAE-based energy company have also registered to set up operations in India.

Institut fuer Oekologie, Technik and Innovation Gmbh, also in the new list of foreign companies keen to set up base in India, provides testing and certification services for different industries.

These foreign companies are expected to bring in new technology and will complement the efforts of Indian companies that are operating in the infrastructure sector, a senior official pointed out.

Big-ticket infrastructure projects in the highways, railways and ports sector will continue to drive growth in the Indian economy as the Government has stepped up the outlay for these investments in the interim budget for 2024-25.

Government investments in large infrastructure projects create jobs and incomes that have a multiplier effect on the economy as demand for products such as steel and cement also goes up which leads to more private investments and employment. With the creation of additional jobs, the demand for consumer goods also increases leading to a further acceleration in the country’s economic growth rate.

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To ramp up the virtuous cycle of investment and job creation, the budget for 2023-24 had ramped up the capital expenditure outlay on infrastructure projects by 37.4 per cent to a whopping Rs 10 lakh crore from Rs 7.28 lakh crore in 2022-23.

The interim budget presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has further enhanced by 11.1 per cent the allocation for infrastructure projects to a whopping Rs 11.11 lakh crore to spur growth. The increase that comes on top of a large base of the previous year will result in massive investments to spur growth. The finance minister pointed out that this will also attract big investments from the private sector which will accelerate the growth momentum.

The interim budget provides for a Rs 2.52 lakh crore capital expenditure for Railways in 2024-25. The finance minister has announced the implementation of three major economic railway corridor programmes namely energy, mineral and cement corridors; port connectivity corridors; and high traffic density corridors.

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–IANS

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RBI fines Punjab National Bank for breach of rules

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Mumbai, July 6 (IANS) The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Friday that it has imposed a penalty of Rs 1.32 crore on Punjab National Bank for non-compliance with regulations on ‘Loans and Advances – Statutory and Other Restrictions’ and breach of KYC norms.

The RBI has in its statutory inspection found that PNB “sanctioned working capital demand loans to two State Government-owned Corporations against amounts receivable from Government by way of subsidies/refunds/reimbursements.”

PNB also failed to preserve the records pertaining to the identification of customers and their addresses obtained during the course of business relationships in certain accounts.

The RBI also said that the action against PNB is based on deficiencies in regulatory compliance and is not intended to pronounce upon the validity of any transactions or agreement entered into by the bank with its customers.

–IANS

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Ola exits Google Maps, moves to in-house Ola Maps

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New Delhi, July 6 (IANS) India’s major ride-hailing company Ola has exited Google Maps and has shifted to its own Ola Maps for cab operations.

Bhavish Aggarwal, co-founder and Chairman of the Ola group said that through this move, the company will save nearly Rs 100 crore per year.

Last month Aggarwal cut all his ties with Microsoft Azure and shifted his company’s entire workload to in-house Artificial Intelligence (AI) firm Krutrim.

In a social media post, he asked users to check Ola apps and update if required.

Aggarwal said on X, “After Azure exit last month, we’ve now fully exited Google Maps. We used to spend ₹100 cr a year but we’ve made that 0 this month by moving completely to our in-house Ola maps! Check your Ola app and update if needed.”

Aggarwal announced many more new features like street view, NERFs, indoor images, 3D maps, drone maps, etc will be integrated into Ola maps soon.

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“Many more features coming soon – street view, NERFs, indoor images, 3D maps, drone maps, etc!” Aggarwal said in a social media post.

In October 2021, Ola acquired Pune-based geospatial services provider company GeoSpoc.

Currently, Ola Maps provides services to its flagship ride-hailing app Ola cabs.

At the time of the Krutrim AI launch, Ola announced that it would provide a mapping solution within its Cloud services.

Recently, Aggarwal said that “early next year is when you can see our own cells in our own products.”

Ola is building a battery cell gigafactory in Tamil Nadu’s Krishnagiri District.

–IANS

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