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Sharp movements ahead, trade cautiously

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Sharp movements ahead, trade cautiously

New Delhi, May 5 (IANS) The week went by and had four trading days with a mid-week holiday on May 1, thereby making it two periods of two days each. The volatility witnessed was several notches higher than usual. Surprises one to note that just about 10 days ago, India VIX, which is the volatility index, crashed to a new low. Maybe it was the lull before the storm.

On Tuesday and Friday, NIFTY made new highs and then fell sharply, closing in the red. Not sure how one should read it, but the scene is not comfortable. At the end of the week, BSESENSEX gained 147.99 points or 0.20 per cent to close at 73,878.15 points, while NIFTY gained 55.90 points or 0.25 per cent to close at 22,475.85 points.

The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 0.55 per cent, 0.70 per cent and 0.61 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 1.99 per cent, while BSESMALLCAP was down 0.10 per cent. Plenty of mixed signals in the marketplace. Markets gained on two sessions and lost on two. Incidentally, gains and losses alternated with Monday and Thursday gaining while Tuesday and Friday were losing days.

The Indian Rupee lost eight paise or 0.10 per cent to close at Rs 83.42 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones was on a roller coaster ride with gains on four days and losses on one day. Wednesday saw the FED meet for its policy review meeting, where they decided on expected lines to keep interest rates unchanged.

After the meeting, the commentary spelt out very clearly that inflation higher than 2 per cent will not see any rate cuts. This saw markets rallying sharply on Thursday and Friday. One wonders why markets in the US are hell-bent on just a rate cut. One needs to see that economic data is red hot and points to a booming economy. Things could not be better. Why bother about a rate cut at all?

Coming to our markets and the crazy movement we witnessed last week. Tuesday, April 30, saw NIFTY make a new lifetime high at 22,783 points. The previous day’s close was 22,643 points.

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After the high, markets fell sharply and closed at 22,604 points and closed in the red, losing 39 points. BSESENSEX made a high at 75,111 points but did not make a new high. The previous day’s close was 74,671 points. From there, the market fell to 74,488 points, losing 183 points.

Friday, May 3, was even more volatile.

NIFTY made a new lifetime high yet again at 22,794 points against the previous day’s close of 22,648 points. It fell very sharply to close at 22,475 points, a loss of 319 points from the high and 173 points from the previous day’s close.

BSESENSEX made a high at 75,095 points against the previous day’s close of 74,611 points. From there, it fell very sharply to lose 1,217 points from the high and 610 points from the previous day’s close. Indeed, very volatile and a bit scary.

The week ahead has three primary issues tapping the capital markets. Indegene Limited is tapping the markets with Indegene Limited tapping the capital markets with its fresh issue for Rs 760 crore and an offer for sale of 2,39,32,732 shares in a price band of Rs 430-452.

The issue would open on Monday, May 6, and close on Wednesday, May 8. The fresh issue and offer for sale would raise Rs 1,841 crore at the top end of the price band.

The company provides digital-led commercialisation services for the life sciences industry, including bio-pharmaceutical, emerging biotech and medical devices companies, that assist them with drug development and clinical trials, regulatory submissions, pharmacovigilance and complaints management, and the sales and marketing of their products.

Indigene is an integrated solutions provider, and almost 85 per cent of its revenues come from its US subsidiary.

The company reported revenues of Rs 2,306 crore for the year ended March 23, an EBITDA of 19.69 per cent, and a Profit after-tax margin of 11.54 per cent. In absolute terms, the profit after tax was Rs 266.09 crore. The EPS on a fully diluted basis was Rs 11.97. At this EPS, the PE band for the issue is 35.92-37.78.

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There is no comparable company or peer set in the Indian space, while there are some comparable foreign companies globally. The share offers an opportunity for investors with a medium to long-term outlook. There could be listing pop, as well as available considering that markets are at lifetime highs or thereabouts.

The second issue is from Aadhar Housing Finance Limited. The issue is entirely an offer for the sale of Rs 2,800 crore. The price band is Rs 300-315. The selling shareholder is the promoter. This company was acquired from the DHFL group when they fell on bad times around 2016-17.

The company acquired was clean and had no issues while the group was struggling with various issues. The issue will open on Wednesday, May 8, and close on Friday, May 10. The company is a housing Finance company focused on the low-income housing segment with a cap on ticket size at Rs 15 lakh.

In terms of performance, the company reported a gross AUM of just under Rs 20,000 crore at the end of the nine-month period ended December 2023. A mix of the clients they serve is 60 per cent salaried and 40 per cent self-employed. The average ticket size is between Rs 9 lakh to 10 ten lakh.

The company reported an EPS of Rs 13.8 for the year ended March 2023, which on a fully diluted basis was Rs 13.4. The PE band for the issue of diluted earnings is 22.4-23.5. NAV for the company at the end of December 23 is Rs 107.6. The price to book at this NAV is 2.92 at the top end of the band.

Based on the post-issue, the NAV would improve to Rs 123.07 at the top end of the band, and the same ratio would be at 2.56 times the price to book. This compared more than favourably with the peer set. There is money to be made in the issue in the medium to long term. There would be some listing pop as well.

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The third issue is from TBO TEK Limited. It consists of a fresh issue of Rs 400 crore and an offer for sale of 1,25,06,797 equity shares. The price band is Rs 875-920. The issue would open on Wednesday, May 8, and close on Friday, May 10.

The company operates an online B2B travel portal distribution platform that connects buyers and sellers. It is present in the airline and hotel business currently. It earns a commission from the airlines whose tickets are sold on the platform while it charges a markup on the rooms sold on the platform.

The company is in a negative working capital cycle as it pays after receiving the money. It is adding new offerings on the platform and has recently added the Eurail on its platform recently.

The company reported an EPS of Rs 14.07 on a fully diluted basis for the year ended March 2023, and the PE band would be 62.19-65.39 on this EPS. There is no comparable peer in India in this space, and the listed players are basically online travel players like Make My Trip, Easy Trip and Yatra Online, who would be using the platform provided by TBO TEL Limited.

The issue offers scope on listing and in the medium to long term as well.

Coming to the markets, we are at a crossroads once again. On the upside, I would go long only if 22,800 on the NIFTY and 75,200 on the BSESENSEX are crossed and sustained. On the downside, immediate support exists at 22,100 points on NIFTY and 72,800 points on BSESENSEX. It is time to be cautious, as the wild gyrations last week are not giving comfort. The strategy would be to sell on any rallies and buy on sharp dips.

Trade cautiously.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)

–IANS

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Investors’ wealth eroded by a massive Rs 9.19 lakh crore

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bse sensex mumbai

Investors’ wealth eroded by a massive Rs 9.19 lakh crore on Tuesday as markets came under heavy sell-off with the BSE benchmark index Sensex falling 930.55 points.

 Extending its previous day’s decline, the BSE Sensex plummeted 930.55 points or 1.15 per cent to settle at 80,220.72. During the day, it tanked 1,001.74 points or 1.23 per cent to 80,149.53. 

The market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms eroded by Rs 9,19,374.52 crore to Rs 4,44,45,649.22 crore (USD 5.29 trillion). “There has been no respite from FIIs selling in local equities in the current month so far, which has been creating uncertainty among domestic investors.

 Also, foreign investors are fleeing Indian equities to invest in relatively cheaper locations such as China, especially after the stimulus announcement by its government to boost its slowing economy. 

 “Along with sectoral stocks, mid and smallcap stocks too bore the brunt as persistent buying had led to valuations in several stocks getting expensive and hence the breather,” Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research) at Mehta Equities Ltd, said. 

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 From the 30 Sensex pack, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Power Grid, Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, Bajaj Finance and Reliance were among the biggest laggards. In contrast, ICICI Bank, Nestle and Infosys were the gainers from the pack.

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NITI Aayog shares a $300 billion economy roadmap for Mumbai Metropolitan Region

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NITI Aayog shares a 0 billion economy roadmap for Mumbai Metropolitan Region

NITI Aayog shares a $300 billion economy roadmap for Mumbai Metropolitan Region

Mumbai, Aug 22 (IANS) The NITI Aayog in its presentation to the Maharashtra government on Thursday suggested a roadmap for the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) to become a $300 billion economy by 2030 from the present $140 billion.

NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam during his meeting with Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy CMs Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar, suggested that the state can achieve this ambitious target with the promotion of MMR as global services’ hub, affordable housing and slum rehabilitation, tourism, port-proximate integrated manufacturing and logistics hub, planned urbanisation and intensive transport oriented development, sustainability projects and world-class urban infrastructure and transport.

NITI Aayog has said that the state government can attract a private investment of $125-135 billion, incremental GDP growth of $130-150 billion and additional capital by the state government of the order of Rs 50,000 crore over 5-6 years to chase the goal of making MMR a $300 billion economy.

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“MMR is a $140 billion economy across 5 districts and covering 9 municipal corporations with a 25.8 million population and 10 million jobs. Good news is that MMR is on a positive growth trajectory on the back of $50 billion ongoing infrastructure investments. Our vision is to grow MMR into a $300 billion economy by 2030 and $1.5 trillion economy by 2047,” said Subrahmanyam in the presentation.

According to NITI Aayog, MMR has a potential to become a global services hub due to the existing two world-class business districts, Wadala and BKC for financial services and after the development of Navi Mumbai Aerocity as a global aviation city.

It has suggested that the rehabilitation of 2.2 million slums will create new housing stocks in addition to around 1 million affordable housing for low income and middle income group segments.

NITI Aayog has suggested the state can promote two themed tourism development hubs at Gorai and Madh and Alibaug and implement a masterplan for a 300 km coastline.

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Further, the MMR can promote port proximate integrated manufacturing and logistic hub with the development of Kharbav integrated logistic cluster as a multi-modal logistic park, circular economy parks and electronic manufacturing and manufacturing cluster for white goods assembly at Khalapur-Panvel section.

In the wake of the development of Rs 76,000 crore Vadhavan port, NITI Aayog has suggested that it can be exploited for the promotion of green hydrogen, steel, chemicals, integrated textiles and apparels.

Further, the NITI Aayog has suggested that the government should release a slew of policies for services, tourism, affordable housing, and transport-oriented development. In addition, the government will have to craft investment promotion and land allocation policy, simplified and enabling urban planning policies, women-inclusivity blueprint and Green MMR policy.

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has said that the government is focusing on the construction of affordable housing, development of a data center in Navi Mumbai, and completion of Alibaug Multimodal Corridor. Recently, the state government has cleared projects with an investment of Rs 80,000 crore. The government has stepped up efforts to promote tourism along the 720 km coastline.

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(Sanjay Jog can be contacted at sanjay.j@ians.in)

–IANS

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Finance Ministry sees food inflation easing further on back of better monsoon

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Finance Ministry sees food inflation easing further on back of better monsoon

Finance Ministry sees food inflation easing further on back of better monsoon

New Delhi, Aug 22 (IANS) Inflationary pressures in the Indian economy eased in July and food inflation is expected to come down further with this year’s better monsoon leading to higher agricultural production, according to the Finance Ministry’s monthly review released on Thursday.

Retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index eased from 5.1 per cent in June 2024 to 3.5 per cent in July 2024, the lowest since September 2019.

This was mainly due to a significant fall in food inflation. It declined to 5.4 per cent in July 2024 from 9.4 per cent in June 2024, the review states.

The substantial fall witnessed in food inflation was helped majorly by a decline in vegetable inflation from 29.3 per cent in June 2024 to 6.8 per cent in July 2024 and mild deflation in ‘oils and fats’ and spices.

On the other hand, core inflation (which excludes food and fuel) was at a moderate level of 3.3 per cent in July 2024.

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Overall, the retail inflation rate moderated to 4.6 per cent in the first four months of FY25 as compared to 5.3 per cent in FY24 (April-July), according to the review.

With moderate core inflation and positive progress in the monsoon, the headline inflation outlook is positive. Assuming a normal monsoon, CPI inflation for FY25 is projected at 4.5 per cent by the RBI, with Q2 inflation at 4.4 per cent.

A steady progress in the southwest monsoon has supported agricultural activity. The cumulative southwest monsoon rainfall was 3 per cent higher than the long-period average up to August 19, 2024. Further, the spatial distribution has improved, with 84 per cent of subdivisions receiving normal or excess rainfall. This has enabled healthy Kharif sowing.

As of August 16, the actual sowing area under total foodgrains was 4.8 per cent higher than the corresponding period of the previous year, while progress in cereals and pulses was 4.6 per cent and 5.7 per cent higher than the previous year.

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Corresponding to healthy progress in monsoon, availability of water level in reservoirs improving, ensuring water adequacy for irrigation during current Kharif and upcoming rabi crop production. The storage availability in 150 reservoirs as of August 15, was 111 per cent of the corresponding period of last year and 114 per cent of the average storage of the last ten years, according to the Central Water Commission. This augurs well for healthy food production that will aid in cooling food inflation in the upcoming months. Further, to enhance productivity and resilience in the agriculture sector, various measures have been announced in the Union Budget FY25, the Finance Ministry said.

–IANS

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Indian economy is on upswing: Finance Ministry

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Indian economy is on upswing: Finance Ministry

Indian economy is on upswing: Finance Ministry

New Delhi, Aug 22 (IANS) The Indian economy experienced a notable upswing across various economic indicators in July 2024, signalling strong and resilient business activities with both the manufacturing and services sectors posting a robust performance, according to the Finance Ministry’s monthly review released on Thursday.

“The month saw impressive milestones being reached, substantial growth in GST collections, and a significant rise in e-way bill generation, which points to an overall increase in economic activity. The stock market indices also reached record highs in July,” the review states.

On balance, India’s economic momentum remains intact. Despite a somewhat erratic monsoon, reservoirs have been replenished. Manufacturing and services sectors are expanding, going by the Purchasing Managers’ indices. Tax collections – especially indirect taxes, which reflect transactions – are growing healthily, and so is bank credit, according to the review.

Inflation is moderating, and exports of both goods and services are doing better than they did last year. Stock markets are holding on to their levels. Foreign direct investment is looking up as gross inflows are rising, the review states.

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Gross GST collections for July 2024 maintained their momentum, achieving their second-highest level since May 2023. The total gross GST revenue rose by 10.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY), bringing the total for FY 25 (April to July) to Rs 7.4 lakh crore.

This increase in GST collections also highlights robust compliance and expansion of GST coverage across various economic activities.

The upward level shift is reflected in the average monthly GST collections rising from Rs 1.68 lakh crore in FY24 to Rs 1.85 lakh crore in FY25.

The year-on-year increase in e-way bills reached a nine-month peak of 19.2 per cent with the total number of e-way bills issued in July surging to 10.5 crore, setting a new single-month record.

According to the review, the manufacturing sector has continued to demonstrate robust performance in the first four months of FY25, as evidenced by the strong performance of various high-frequency indicators.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Manufacturing, a crucial gauge of the economic vitality of the manufacturing sector, stood at 58.1 in July 2024, significantly above the series long-run average and among the highest recorded in recent years. This expansion, driven by buoyant demand conditions and a surge in production volumes, bodes well for the overall health of the economy.

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Similarly, the service sector continued to perform well.

PMI services remained in an expansionary zone at 60.3 in July 2024, driven by expansion in international sales, an increase in new order uptakes, and a rise in new export orders.

Despite a rise in wages and material costs which pushed up business expenses, overall sentiment in the services sector remains upbeat, driven, among others, by an upswing in the tourism cum hotel industry induced by leisure travel, business travel, and social events, the Finance Ministry said.

–IANS

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Sensex closes 147 pts up 81,053, Nifty above 24,800

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Sensex closes 147 pts up 81,053, Nifty above 24,800

Sensex closes 147 pts up 81,053, Nifty above 24,800

Mumbai, Aug 22 (IANS) Indian stock markets again closed higher on Thursday due to positive sentiment in the markets.

At closing, Sensex was up 147 points, or 0.18 per cent, at 81,053 and Nifty was up 41 points or 0.17 per cent at 24,811.

The market’s positive sentiment was bolstered by optimistic global cues, particularly from the US markets, where the S&P 500 extended its winning streak, reflecting investor confidence amid expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

During the day, Sensex traded in the range of 80,954 to 81,236 and Nifty traded in the range of 24,784 to 24,867.

In the Sensex pack, Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, Titan, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Maruti Suzuki and SBI were the top gainers. Tata Motors, M&M, Wipro, NTPC, TCS, Power Grid, Sun Pharma, Axis Bank, and Nestle are the top losers.

Thursday’s market rally was led by Nifty Bank which settled up 300 points or 0.59 per cent at 50,985.

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Among the sectoral indices, PSU Bank, fin service, FMCG, metal, realty and Private bank were the major gainers. Pharma, IT and energy were the major laggards.

An upward trend was also seen in small and medium stocks in the trading session. The Nifty midcap 100 index was up 400 points or 0.69 per cent at 58,844 and the Nifty smallcap 100 index was at 19,099, up 32 points or 0.17 per cent.

According to market experts, the domestic market witnessed modest gains owing to positive global sentiments.

“Particularly, the recent signs of weakness in the US non-farm payroll data have strengthened the case for potential interest rate cuts in September. However, in the broader market, investors are being cautious, opting for a selective approach, awaiting more clarity from central bank leaders in Japan and the US,” they added.

–IANS

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