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Monday’s sharp correction makes markets move uncertain

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New Delhi, Aug 11 (IANS) Markets were topsy-turvy in the week gone by.

The correction which had set in on Friday of the previous week (2nd August) continued and we saw a sharp sell-off on Monday. Probably this was a fall which post-covid market participants had never seen before. One must ignore of course the fall witnessed on June 4 when results were declared for the general elections which were lower than what the exit polls had said. This saw a sharp reaction from the markets in India and also globally.

There has been recovery from the lower levels, but whether we are out of the woods is still an issue which is debatable. To add to the worries of the Indian markets is the fact that with results season coming to the last reporting week, the comfort one looked for in numbers showing growth in revenues and profits seems to be missing. This makes markets that much more expensive at a time when the one big factor against them is valuations.

The BSESENSEX lost on three of the five trading sessions and gained on two. BSESENSEX was down 1,275.04 points or 1.58 per cent to close at 79,705.91 points while NIFTY lost 350.20 points or 1.42 per cent to close at 24,367.50 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 1.24 per cent, 1.38 per cent and 1.46 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 1.01 per cent while BSESMALLCAP was down 1.86 per cent.

The Indian Rupee was under pressure and lost 21 paisa or 0.25 per cent to close at 83.96. Dow Jones was choppy and lost on two of the five trading sessions. It lost 239.72 points or 0.60 per cent to close at 39,497.54 points.

The lows made in our markets on Monday during the sharp fall were at 78,295.86 points on BSESENSEX and at 23,893.70 points on NIFTY. These will become not only significant support levels for any downturn but also a pivot to decide any trends in the medium term on the market. On the upside previous tops are a longer resistance, but levels of 24,500 on NIFTY and at 80,500 points on BSESENSEX become important levels which have to be surpassed and maintained for any uptick to continue in the markets. Until then we can say that the broad trading zone for the markets would be in the range of 23,900-24,500 on NIFTY and at 78,300-80,500 on BSESENSEX.

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Primary markets have been very active and we saw three issues listed during the week. The first of them was the listing of Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Limited listed on Tuesday the 6th of August. The company had issued shares at Rs 679. The discovered price was Rs 725 on both the stock exchanges. The share hit the upper circuit at Rs 797.45 on BSE and Rs 797.50 on NSE. It closed a tad lower at Rs 796.25, a gain of Rs 117.25 or 17.26 per cent. By Friday, the share traded higher and closed at Rs 803.70, a gain of Rs 124.70 or 18.37 per cent.

The second share to list was that of Ceigall (India) Limited which had issued shares at Rs 401. The share made its debut on Tuesday with the discovered price being Rs 413 and closing day at Rs 386.05, a loss of Rs 14.95 or 3.72 per cent. On Friday, the share gained some ground and closed at Rs 396.95, a reduced loss of Rs 4.05 or 1.01.

The third share to list was that of Ola Electric Mobility Limited who had issued shares at Rs 76. Shares debuted on Friday, August 9 and the discovered price was Rs 76. Shares then closed at the upper circuit of Rs 91.18 on BSE, a gain of Rs 15.18 or 19.97 per cent. On NSE, the closing price was factionally higher at Rs 91.20.

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Besides this we had two issues which opened and closed for subscription. The issue from Unicommerce Esolutions Limited opened on Tuesday, August 6 and closed on Thursday August 8. The issue at close was subscribed 168.39 times overall. The QIB portion was subscribed 138.75 times, HNI portion 252.48 times and Retail portion was subscribed 131.15 times.

The issue from Brainbees Solutions Limited had opened on Tuesday, August 6 and closed on Thursday, August 8. The company is an online and off-line retailer of accessories, clothes and everything that mothers need, new born babies and kids wear up to 12 years of age. They have a popular website firstcry.com. The price band of the issue is between Rs 440-465. The company is currently making loss and is yet to make profits. It’s a one-of-a-kind company and has a head start in business. The issue was subscribed 12.22 times overall with QIB portion subscribed 19.3 times, HNI portion subscribed 4.68 times and Retail portion subscribed 2.31 times.

Both the issues which closed for subscription last week, would list on Tuesday the 13th of August.

The week ahead also sees the issue from Saraswati Saree Depot Limited which would open on Monday the 12th of August and close on Wednesday the 14th of August. The price band is Rs 152-160. The company is into the wholesale business of selling sarees and its predominant markets are Maharashtra. The company reported sales of Rs 610 crores for the year ended March 24 and an EPS of Rs 8.92. The PE band for the issue is 17.04-17.94 which is competitive with that of Sai Silk which is a retail brand based in South India. The wholesale and retail businesses are quite different in nature. The issue looks decently priced.

The week ahead has a trading holiday on Thursday the 15th of August when we celebrate our Independence day. This would cause a mild disruption and see markets seeing a break in momentum. On the positive side, indications from the FED suggest that there would be an interest rate cut in the US in the September meeting. Closer home, RBI in its bi-monthly meeting kept interest rates unchanged on expected lines. RBI believes that it is getting closer to its target of inflation rates and is monitoring the progress of inflation.

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In a continuation of the Hindenburg saga, there is a spate of allegations now being made by Hindenburg against the present Chairperson of SEBI. There has been a denial put out from her explaining matters. This has now become a serious matter as the tone of accusations is against the regulator and implies, what can a regulator who has an issue herself, do against Hindenburg. Expect fast developments on this issue over the next 48 hours. I believe there may not be much action in the marketplace on this news in general. This now becomes a matter for the government and the regulator to act upon, as their authority has been effectively challenged.

Markets in the coming shortened four-day week will have a tough time to keep things under control. We were hit last week by a sell-off and the mood of FPIs is still not clear. They appear to be sellers on many more days than they are buyers. The biggest pocket of support is from Domestic institutions who seem to have compelling reasons to invest the sea of money that they are being flooded with. In such a scenario with no immediate news flow to significantly alter market direction, we should remain in a broad trading zone as mentioned above. The strategy would be to flow with the trend and use any meaningful rally to sell and book profits.

Trade cautiously.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)

–IANS

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Investors’ wealth eroded by a massive Rs 9.19 lakh crore

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bse sensex mumbai

Investors’ wealth eroded by a massive Rs 9.19 lakh crore on Tuesday as markets came under heavy sell-off with the BSE benchmark index Sensex falling 930.55 points.

 Extending its previous day’s decline, the BSE Sensex plummeted 930.55 points or 1.15 per cent to settle at 80,220.72. During the day, it tanked 1,001.74 points or 1.23 per cent to 80,149.53. 

The market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms eroded by Rs 9,19,374.52 crore to Rs 4,44,45,649.22 crore (USD 5.29 trillion). “There has been no respite from FIIs selling in local equities in the current month so far, which has been creating uncertainty among domestic investors.

 Also, foreign investors are fleeing Indian equities to invest in relatively cheaper locations such as China, especially after the stimulus announcement by its government to boost its slowing economy. 

 “Along with sectoral stocks, mid and smallcap stocks too bore the brunt as persistent buying had led to valuations in several stocks getting expensive and hence the breather,” Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research) at Mehta Equities Ltd, said. 

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 From the 30 Sensex pack, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Power Grid, Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, Bajaj Finance and Reliance were among the biggest laggards. In contrast, ICICI Bank, Nestle and Infosys were the gainers from the pack.

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NITI Aayog shares a $300 billion economy roadmap for Mumbai Metropolitan Region

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NITI Aayog shares a 0 billion economy roadmap for Mumbai Metropolitan Region

NITI Aayog shares a $300 billion economy roadmap for Mumbai Metropolitan Region

Mumbai, Aug 22 (IANS) The NITI Aayog in its presentation to the Maharashtra government on Thursday suggested a roadmap for the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) to become a $300 billion economy by 2030 from the present $140 billion.

NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam during his meeting with Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy CMs Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar, suggested that the state can achieve this ambitious target with the promotion of MMR as global services’ hub, affordable housing and slum rehabilitation, tourism, port-proximate integrated manufacturing and logistics hub, planned urbanisation and intensive transport oriented development, sustainability projects and world-class urban infrastructure and transport.

NITI Aayog has said that the state government can attract a private investment of $125-135 billion, incremental GDP growth of $130-150 billion and additional capital by the state government of the order of Rs 50,000 crore over 5-6 years to chase the goal of making MMR a $300 billion economy.

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“MMR is a $140 billion economy across 5 districts and covering 9 municipal corporations with a 25.8 million population and 10 million jobs. Good news is that MMR is on a positive growth trajectory on the back of $50 billion ongoing infrastructure investments. Our vision is to grow MMR into a $300 billion economy by 2030 and $1.5 trillion economy by 2047,” said Subrahmanyam in the presentation.

According to NITI Aayog, MMR has a potential to become a global services hub due to the existing two world-class business districts, Wadala and BKC for financial services and after the development of Navi Mumbai Aerocity as a global aviation city.

It has suggested that the rehabilitation of 2.2 million slums will create new housing stocks in addition to around 1 million affordable housing for low income and middle income group segments.

NITI Aayog has suggested the state can promote two themed tourism development hubs at Gorai and Madh and Alibaug and implement a masterplan for a 300 km coastline.

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Further, the MMR can promote port proximate integrated manufacturing and logistic hub with the development of Kharbav integrated logistic cluster as a multi-modal logistic park, circular economy parks and electronic manufacturing and manufacturing cluster for white goods assembly at Khalapur-Panvel section.

In the wake of the development of Rs 76,000 crore Vadhavan port, NITI Aayog has suggested that it can be exploited for the promotion of green hydrogen, steel, chemicals, integrated textiles and apparels.

Further, the NITI Aayog has suggested that the government should release a slew of policies for services, tourism, affordable housing, and transport-oriented development. In addition, the government will have to craft investment promotion and land allocation policy, simplified and enabling urban planning policies, women-inclusivity blueprint and Green MMR policy.

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has said that the government is focusing on the construction of affordable housing, development of a data center in Navi Mumbai, and completion of Alibaug Multimodal Corridor. Recently, the state government has cleared projects with an investment of Rs 80,000 crore. The government has stepped up efforts to promote tourism along the 720 km coastline.

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(Sanjay Jog can be contacted at sanjay.j@ians.in)

–IANS

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Finance Ministry sees food inflation easing further on back of better monsoon

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Finance Ministry sees food inflation easing further on back of better monsoon

Finance Ministry sees food inflation easing further on back of better monsoon

New Delhi, Aug 22 (IANS) Inflationary pressures in the Indian economy eased in July and food inflation is expected to come down further with this year’s better monsoon leading to higher agricultural production, according to the Finance Ministry’s monthly review released on Thursday.

Retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index eased from 5.1 per cent in June 2024 to 3.5 per cent in July 2024, the lowest since September 2019.

This was mainly due to a significant fall in food inflation. It declined to 5.4 per cent in July 2024 from 9.4 per cent in June 2024, the review states.

The substantial fall witnessed in food inflation was helped majorly by a decline in vegetable inflation from 29.3 per cent in June 2024 to 6.8 per cent in July 2024 and mild deflation in ‘oils and fats’ and spices.

On the other hand, core inflation (which excludes food and fuel) was at a moderate level of 3.3 per cent in July 2024.

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Overall, the retail inflation rate moderated to 4.6 per cent in the first four months of FY25 as compared to 5.3 per cent in FY24 (April-July), according to the review.

With moderate core inflation and positive progress in the monsoon, the headline inflation outlook is positive. Assuming a normal monsoon, CPI inflation for FY25 is projected at 4.5 per cent by the RBI, with Q2 inflation at 4.4 per cent.

A steady progress in the southwest monsoon has supported agricultural activity. The cumulative southwest monsoon rainfall was 3 per cent higher than the long-period average up to August 19, 2024. Further, the spatial distribution has improved, with 84 per cent of subdivisions receiving normal or excess rainfall. This has enabled healthy Kharif sowing.

As of August 16, the actual sowing area under total foodgrains was 4.8 per cent higher than the corresponding period of the previous year, while progress in cereals and pulses was 4.6 per cent and 5.7 per cent higher than the previous year.

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Corresponding to healthy progress in monsoon, availability of water level in reservoirs improving, ensuring water adequacy for irrigation during current Kharif and upcoming rabi crop production. The storage availability in 150 reservoirs as of August 15, was 111 per cent of the corresponding period of last year and 114 per cent of the average storage of the last ten years, according to the Central Water Commission. This augurs well for healthy food production that will aid in cooling food inflation in the upcoming months. Further, to enhance productivity and resilience in the agriculture sector, various measures have been announced in the Union Budget FY25, the Finance Ministry said.

–IANS

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Indian economy is on upswing: Finance Ministry

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Indian economy is on upswing: Finance Ministry

Indian economy is on upswing: Finance Ministry

New Delhi, Aug 22 (IANS) The Indian economy experienced a notable upswing across various economic indicators in July 2024, signalling strong and resilient business activities with both the manufacturing and services sectors posting a robust performance, according to the Finance Ministry’s monthly review released on Thursday.

“The month saw impressive milestones being reached, substantial growth in GST collections, and a significant rise in e-way bill generation, which points to an overall increase in economic activity. The stock market indices also reached record highs in July,” the review states.

On balance, India’s economic momentum remains intact. Despite a somewhat erratic monsoon, reservoirs have been replenished. Manufacturing and services sectors are expanding, going by the Purchasing Managers’ indices. Tax collections – especially indirect taxes, which reflect transactions – are growing healthily, and so is bank credit, according to the review.

Inflation is moderating, and exports of both goods and services are doing better than they did last year. Stock markets are holding on to their levels. Foreign direct investment is looking up as gross inflows are rising, the review states.

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Gross GST collections for July 2024 maintained their momentum, achieving their second-highest level since May 2023. The total gross GST revenue rose by 10.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY), bringing the total for FY 25 (April to July) to Rs 7.4 lakh crore.

This increase in GST collections also highlights robust compliance and expansion of GST coverage across various economic activities.

The upward level shift is reflected in the average monthly GST collections rising from Rs 1.68 lakh crore in FY24 to Rs 1.85 lakh crore in FY25.

The year-on-year increase in e-way bills reached a nine-month peak of 19.2 per cent with the total number of e-way bills issued in July surging to 10.5 crore, setting a new single-month record.

According to the review, the manufacturing sector has continued to demonstrate robust performance in the first four months of FY25, as evidenced by the strong performance of various high-frequency indicators.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Manufacturing, a crucial gauge of the economic vitality of the manufacturing sector, stood at 58.1 in July 2024, significantly above the series long-run average and among the highest recorded in recent years. This expansion, driven by buoyant demand conditions and a surge in production volumes, bodes well for the overall health of the economy.

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Similarly, the service sector continued to perform well.

PMI services remained in an expansionary zone at 60.3 in July 2024, driven by expansion in international sales, an increase in new order uptakes, and a rise in new export orders.

Despite a rise in wages and material costs which pushed up business expenses, overall sentiment in the services sector remains upbeat, driven, among others, by an upswing in the tourism cum hotel industry induced by leisure travel, business travel, and social events, the Finance Ministry said.

–IANS

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Sensex closes 147 pts up 81,053, Nifty above 24,800

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Sensex closes 147 pts up 81,053, Nifty above 24,800

Sensex closes 147 pts up 81,053, Nifty above 24,800

Mumbai, Aug 22 (IANS) Indian stock markets again closed higher on Thursday due to positive sentiment in the markets.

At closing, Sensex was up 147 points, or 0.18 per cent, at 81,053 and Nifty was up 41 points or 0.17 per cent at 24,811.

The market’s positive sentiment was bolstered by optimistic global cues, particularly from the US markets, where the S&P 500 extended its winning streak, reflecting investor confidence amid expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

During the day, Sensex traded in the range of 80,954 to 81,236 and Nifty traded in the range of 24,784 to 24,867.

In the Sensex pack, Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, Titan, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Maruti Suzuki and SBI were the top gainers. Tata Motors, M&M, Wipro, NTPC, TCS, Power Grid, Sun Pharma, Axis Bank, and Nestle are the top losers.

Thursday’s market rally was led by Nifty Bank which settled up 300 points or 0.59 per cent at 50,985.

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Among the sectoral indices, PSU Bank, fin service, FMCG, metal, realty and Private bank were the major gainers. Pharma, IT and energy were the major laggards.

An upward trend was also seen in small and medium stocks in the trading session. The Nifty midcap 100 index was up 400 points or 0.69 per cent at 58,844 and the Nifty smallcap 100 index was at 19,099, up 32 points or 0.17 per cent.

According to market experts, the domestic market witnessed modest gains owing to positive global sentiments.

“Particularly, the recent signs of weakness in the US non-farm payroll data have strengthened the case for potential interest rate cuts in September. However, in the broader market, investors are being cautious, opting for a selective approach, awaiting more clarity from central bank leaders in Japan and the US,” they added.

–IANS

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