Businesses
Markets to decide on trend after sharp Thursday movement
Mumbai, March 31 (IANS) The short and truncated week was eventful and dramatic. It was the end of the week, month, March futures expiry and also the end of the financial year 2023-24.
Call it a bear trap, NAV propping exercise, year end flourish, we had a super volatile Thursday to sign of the year in style. Markets gained on two of the three trading sessions and lost on one.
At the end of the short and eventful week, BSE SENSEX gained 819.41 points or 1.13 per cent to close at 73,651.35 points while NIFTY gained 230.15 points or 1.04 per cent to close at 22,326.90 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.33 per cent, 1.34 per cent and 1.33 per cent respectively. BSE MIDCAP gained 1.34 per cent while BSE SMALLCAP was up 0.92 per cent.
The Indian Rupee gained 2 paisa or 0.02 per cent to close at Rs 83.40 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on two of the four trading sessions and lost on two. Dow was up 331.47 points or 0.84 per cent to close at 39,807.37 points.
Thursday, March 28, was the last trading day of the financial year 2023-24. It was also the day when March futures expired. This increased the volatility and one saw the effect of the same on the markets.
NIFTY made an intraday high of 22,516 points and closed at 22,326.90 points. This meant that NIFTY lost 190 points from the high of the day. NIFTY had gained on a net basis 203 points.
Similarly, the intraday high on BSE SENSEX was 74,190 points while it closed at 73,651.35 points. This meant that BSESENSEX lost 540 points from the high of the day. BSE SENSEX had gained 655 points on a net basis. 655 points.
Coming to the quarterly performance of the benchmark indices, one finds that the net change during the quarter January to March 2024 was a fairly quiet one.
BSE SENSEX gained 1,411.09 points or 1.95 per cent while NIFTY gained 595.50 points or 2.74 per cent. BSE MIDCAP was up 2,482.96 points or 6.74 per cent while BSE SMALLCAP was up 492.58 points or 1.15 per cent.
For the financial year 2023-2024, the gains have been spectacular and even though the current quarter was nothing great, the overall number is impressive.
The quarter from January to March 2023 was negative and one saw the indices lose ground. BSESENSEX lost about 3 per cent while NIFTY lost around 4 per cent.
Even the midcap and small cap indices lost about 5 per cent and 7 per cent. As a result, the annual gains were 24.85 per cent on the BSE SENSEX, 28.61 per cent on NIFTY, 63.40 per cent on BSE MIDCAP and 60.13 per cent on BSE SMALLCAP.
A question in the form of food for thought is, would financial year 2024-25, see similar or near about similar gains? Without going into discussion, suffice to say that the year ahead would be tough and trying to match the benchmark returns of last year would be near impossible.
Expiry of March futures was on a positive note with the series gaining 344.10 points or 1.57% to close at 22326.90 points. More than 60 per cent of the monthly or series gains came on the last day when NIFTY gained 203 points on a net basis.
The week ahead sees the offer for sale from Bharti Hexacom Limited tapping the markets with its offer for sale of 7.5 crore shares in a price band of Rs 542-570. The issue opens on Wednesday, April 3, and closes on Friday, April 5.
The selling shareholder is Telecommunications Consultants India Limited, a government undertaking that owns 30 per cent of the company. The balance shareholding is owned by Bharti Airtel Limited, which is a listed entity.
The company is in the business of providing communications solutions and offering consumer mobile services, fixed-line telephone and broadband services to customers in Rajasthan and the North East telecommunication circles, the latter comprising the states of Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura. The services are offered under the Airtel brand.
The shares are being offered at valuations which are between 12-15 per cent cheaper than the same for Bharti Airtel Limited. While the business of the parent company and the company going public is not identical, it’s the best example available. The selling shareholder who is the government is selling half of its shares through this offering and would hold 15 per cent of the equity post this issue. There is a six-month lock in for the remaining shareholders post the listing of the shares.
I believe the government sooner than later would look to monetise the remaining shares and sell them post the price discovery of this issue. In that case, investors who apply for this issue and are allotted shares, may have an opportunity to become a part of Bharti Airtel the parent company, as the possibility of this company being merged with the parent is a very bright possibility. Shares of Bharti Airtel trade are trading virtually at new lifetime high at around Rs 1,230.
The week ahead would see markets being volatile and choppy. While the sharp volatility of Thursday could best be explained as an aberration and something which is unlikely to be repeated, the benchmark has been raised. Markets would find it tough to remain at the elevated levels which they have reached.
The stop loss for any long positions would be the lows made last week and earlier support of 21,900 points on NIFTY and 72,300 on BSE SENSEX. These should be taken as key supports and any dip below these levels would see sharp sell-off in the markets. On the upside, Thursday took us to new territory on NIFTY and these are tricky waters to navigate.
The strategy would be to sell on strong rallies and wait for a sharp correction to enter. The picks should be large cap and very select midcap and small cap stocks.
–IANS
arun/svn
Businesses
Investors’ wealth eroded by a massive Rs 9.19 lakh crore
Investors’ wealth eroded by a massive Rs 9.19 lakh crore on Tuesday as markets came under heavy sell-off with the BSE benchmark index Sensex falling 930.55 points.
Extending its previous day’s decline, the BSE Sensex plummeted 930.55 points or 1.15 per cent to settle at 80,220.72. During the day, it tanked 1,001.74 points or 1.23 per cent to 80,149.53.
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms eroded by Rs 9,19,374.52 crore to Rs 4,44,45,649.22 crore (USD 5.29 trillion). “There has been no respite from FIIs selling in local equities in the current month so far, which has been creating uncertainty among domestic investors.
Also, foreign investors are fleeing Indian equities to invest in relatively cheaper locations such as China, especially after the stimulus announcement by its government to boost its slowing economy.
“Along with sectoral stocks, mid and smallcap stocks too bore the brunt as persistent buying had led to valuations in several stocks getting expensive and hence the breather,” Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research) at Mehta Equities Ltd, said.
From the 30 Sensex pack, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Power Grid, Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, Bajaj Finance and Reliance were among the biggest laggards. In contrast, ICICI Bank, Nestle and Infosys were the gainers from the pack.
Businesses
NITI Aayog shares a $300 billion economy roadmap for Mumbai Metropolitan Region
Mumbai, Aug 22 (IANS) The NITI Aayog in its presentation to the Maharashtra government on Thursday suggested a roadmap for the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) to become a $300 billion economy by 2030 from the present $140 billion.
NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam during his meeting with Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy CMs Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar, suggested that the state can achieve this ambitious target with the promotion of MMR as global services’ hub, affordable housing and slum rehabilitation, tourism, port-proximate integrated manufacturing and logistics hub, planned urbanisation and intensive transport oriented development, sustainability projects and world-class urban infrastructure and transport.
NITI Aayog has said that the state government can attract a private investment of $125-135 billion, incremental GDP growth of $130-150 billion and additional capital by the state government of the order of Rs 50,000 crore over 5-6 years to chase the goal of making MMR a $300 billion economy.
“MMR is a $140 billion economy across 5 districts and covering 9 municipal corporations with a 25.8 million population and 10 million jobs. Good news is that MMR is on a positive growth trajectory on the back of $50 billion ongoing infrastructure investments. Our vision is to grow MMR into a $300 billion economy by 2030 and $1.5 trillion economy by 2047,” said Subrahmanyam in the presentation.
According to NITI Aayog, MMR has a potential to become a global services hub due to the existing two world-class business districts, Wadala and BKC for financial services and after the development of Navi Mumbai Aerocity as a global aviation city.
It has suggested that the rehabilitation of 2.2 million slums will create new housing stocks in addition to around 1 million affordable housing for low income and middle income group segments.
NITI Aayog has suggested the state can promote two themed tourism development hubs at Gorai and Madh and Alibaug and implement a masterplan for a 300 km coastline.
Further, the MMR can promote port proximate integrated manufacturing and logistic hub with the development of Kharbav integrated logistic cluster as a multi-modal logistic park, circular economy parks and electronic manufacturing and manufacturing cluster for white goods assembly at Khalapur-Panvel section.
In the wake of the development of Rs 76,000 crore Vadhavan port, NITI Aayog has suggested that it can be exploited for the promotion of green hydrogen, steel, chemicals, integrated textiles and apparels.
Further, the NITI Aayog has suggested that the government should release a slew of policies for services, tourism, affordable housing, and transport-oriented development. In addition, the government will have to craft investment promotion and land allocation policy, simplified and enabling urban planning policies, women-inclusivity blueprint and Green MMR policy.
Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has said that the government is focusing on the construction of affordable housing, development of a data center in Navi Mumbai, and completion of Alibaug Multimodal Corridor. Recently, the state government has cleared projects with an investment of Rs 80,000 crore. The government has stepped up efforts to promote tourism along the 720 km coastline.
(Sanjay Jog can be contacted at sanjay.j@ians.in)
–IANS
sj/pgh
Businesses
Finance Ministry sees food inflation easing further on back of better monsoon
New Delhi, Aug 22 (IANS) Inflationary pressures in the Indian economy eased in July and food inflation is expected to come down further with this year’s better monsoon leading to higher agricultural production, according to the Finance Ministry’s monthly review released on Thursday.
Retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index eased from 5.1 per cent in June 2024 to 3.5 per cent in July 2024, the lowest since September 2019.
This was mainly due to a significant fall in food inflation. It declined to 5.4 per cent in July 2024 from 9.4 per cent in June 2024, the review states.
The substantial fall witnessed in food inflation was helped majorly by a decline in vegetable inflation from 29.3 per cent in June 2024 to 6.8 per cent in July 2024 and mild deflation in ‘oils and fats’ and spices.
On the other hand, core inflation (which excludes food and fuel) was at a moderate level of 3.3 per cent in July 2024.
Overall, the retail inflation rate moderated to 4.6 per cent in the first four months of FY25 as compared to 5.3 per cent in FY24 (April-July), according to the review.
With moderate core inflation and positive progress in the monsoon, the headline inflation outlook is positive. Assuming a normal monsoon, CPI inflation for FY25 is projected at 4.5 per cent by the RBI, with Q2 inflation at 4.4 per cent.
A steady progress in the southwest monsoon has supported agricultural activity. The cumulative southwest monsoon rainfall was 3 per cent higher than the long-period average up to August 19, 2024. Further, the spatial distribution has improved, with 84 per cent of subdivisions receiving normal or excess rainfall. This has enabled healthy Kharif sowing.
As of August 16, the actual sowing area under total foodgrains was 4.8 per cent higher than the corresponding period of the previous year, while progress in cereals and pulses was 4.6 per cent and 5.7 per cent higher than the previous year.
Corresponding to healthy progress in monsoon, availability of water level in reservoirs improving, ensuring water adequacy for irrigation during current Kharif and upcoming rabi crop production. The storage availability in 150 reservoirs as of August 15, was 111 per cent of the corresponding period of last year and 114 per cent of the average storage of the last ten years, according to the Central Water Commission. This augurs well for healthy food production that will aid in cooling food inflation in the upcoming months. Further, to enhance productivity and resilience in the agriculture sector, various measures have been announced in the Union Budget FY25, the Finance Ministry said.
–IANS
sps/vd
Businesses
Indian economy is on upswing: Finance Ministry
New Delhi, Aug 22 (IANS) The Indian economy experienced a notable upswing across various economic indicators in July 2024, signalling strong and resilient business activities with both the manufacturing and services sectors posting a robust performance, according to the Finance Ministry’s monthly review released on Thursday.
“The month saw impressive milestones being reached, substantial growth in GST collections, and a significant rise in e-way bill generation, which points to an overall increase in economic activity. The stock market indices also reached record highs in July,” the review states.
On balance, India’s economic momentum remains intact. Despite a somewhat erratic monsoon, reservoirs have been replenished. Manufacturing and services sectors are expanding, going by the Purchasing Managers’ indices. Tax collections – especially indirect taxes, which reflect transactions – are growing healthily, and so is bank credit, according to the review.
Inflation is moderating, and exports of both goods and services are doing better than they did last year. Stock markets are holding on to their levels. Foreign direct investment is looking up as gross inflows are rising, the review states.
Gross GST collections for July 2024 maintained their momentum, achieving their second-highest level since May 2023. The total gross GST revenue rose by 10.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY), bringing the total for FY 25 (April to July) to Rs 7.4 lakh crore.
This increase in GST collections also highlights robust compliance and expansion of GST coverage across various economic activities.
The upward level shift is reflected in the average monthly GST collections rising from Rs 1.68 lakh crore in FY24 to Rs 1.85 lakh crore in FY25.
The year-on-year increase in e-way bills reached a nine-month peak of 19.2 per cent with the total number of e-way bills issued in July surging to 10.5 crore, setting a new single-month record.
According to the review, the manufacturing sector has continued to demonstrate robust performance in the first four months of FY25, as evidenced by the strong performance of various high-frequency indicators.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Manufacturing, a crucial gauge of the economic vitality of the manufacturing sector, stood at 58.1 in July 2024, significantly above the series long-run average and among the highest recorded in recent years. This expansion, driven by buoyant demand conditions and a surge in production volumes, bodes well for the overall health of the economy.
Similarly, the service sector continued to perform well.
PMI services remained in an expansionary zone at 60.3 in July 2024, driven by expansion in international sales, an increase in new order uptakes, and a rise in new export orders.
Despite a rise in wages and material costs which pushed up business expenses, overall sentiment in the services sector remains upbeat, driven, among others, by an upswing in the tourism cum hotel industry induced by leisure travel, business travel, and social events, the Finance Ministry said.
–IANS
sps/pgh
Businesses
Sensex closes 147 pts up 81,053, Nifty above 24,800
Mumbai, Aug 22 (IANS) Indian stock markets again closed higher on Thursday due to positive sentiment in the markets.
At closing, Sensex was up 147 points, or 0.18 per cent, at 81,053 and Nifty was up 41 points or 0.17 per cent at 24,811.
The market’s positive sentiment was bolstered by optimistic global cues, particularly from the US markets, where the S&P 500 extended its winning streak, reflecting investor confidence amid expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
During the day, Sensex traded in the range of 80,954 to 81,236 and Nifty traded in the range of 24,784 to 24,867.
In the Sensex pack, Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, Titan, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Maruti Suzuki and SBI were the top gainers. Tata Motors, M&M, Wipro, NTPC, TCS, Power Grid, Sun Pharma, Axis Bank, and Nestle are the top losers.
Thursday’s market rally was led by Nifty Bank which settled up 300 points or 0.59 per cent at 50,985.
Among the sectoral indices, PSU Bank, fin service, FMCG, metal, realty and Private bank were the major gainers. Pharma, IT and energy were the major laggards.
An upward trend was also seen in small and medium stocks in the trading session. The Nifty midcap 100 index was up 400 points or 0.69 per cent at 58,844 and the Nifty smallcap 100 index was at 19,099, up 32 points or 0.17 per cent.
According to market experts, the domestic market witnessed modest gains owing to positive global sentiments.
“Particularly, the recent signs of weakness in the US non-farm payroll data have strengthened the case for potential interest rate cuts in September. However, in the broader market, investors are being cautious, opting for a selective approach, awaiting more clarity from central bank leaders in Japan and the US,” they added.
–IANS
avs/vd
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