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Markets look tired but expiry could change things

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New Delhi: Markets were open for four trading sessions in the previous week as there was a trading holiday on Monday. They were a little volatile but managed to close with small gains. There has been sector rotation with banking being at the forefront on Wednesday led by sugar stocks and then fertilizer and finally railway stocks.

What could be a cause of concern going forward is the volumes in the fertilizer stocks when they gained sharply. BSESENSEX gained on three of the four sessions while it lost on one. NIFTY on the other hand gained on two and lost on two sessions.

At the end of the four-day week, BSESENSEX gained 217.13 points or 0.28 per cent to close at 77,209.90 points while NIFTY gained 35.50 points or 0.15 per cent to close at 23,501.10 points.

The broader markets saw BSE100 and BSE200 lose 0.04 per cent and 0.14 per cent respectively while BSE500 gained 0.04 per cent. BSEMIDCAP was down 0.20 per cent while BSESMALLCAP was up 1.44 per cent.

The pace at which the BSESMALLCAP and BSEMIDCAP indices have risen is a cause for concern and yet another fund house has raised valuation concerns in these segments.

The Indian Rupee gained 3 paisa or 0.04 per cent to close at Rs 83.53 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on all four trading sessions of the week and gained 561.17 points or 1.45 per cent to close at 39,150.33 points.

In primary market news, we had one listing, and two issues opening and closing for subscriptions while yet another issue had opened and would close in the following week. Two new issues would open and close in the coming week.

The issue from Le Travenues Technology Limited who had issued shares at Rs 93 debuted on Tuesday, the 18th of June. Shares closed day one at Rs 161.99, a gain of Rs 68.99 or 74.88 per cent.

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By the weekend the share gained further and closed at Rs 169.18, a gain of Rs 76.18 or 81.91 per cent.

The issue from Dee Development Engineers Limited who had issued shares in a price band of Rs 193-203 received an excellent response and was oversubscribed 102.32 times. The QIB portion was subscribed 206.54 times, the HNI portion subscribed 148.99 times and the Retail portion subscribed 23.21 times. There were 20.61 lakh applications in all.

The second issue was from Akme Fintrade (India) Limited which had issued shares in a price band of Rs 114-120. The issue was subscribed overall 54.24 times with QIB portion subscribed 28.12 times, HNI portion subscribed 129.79 times and Retail portion subscribed 44.14 times. There were 12.07 lakh applications. The QIB portion response was comparatively muted if one looks at other issues and even the HNI response in this issue. This was probably because the company has higher NPA’s and is in a competitive landscape environment in the NBFC space.

The third issue was from Stanley Lifestyles Limited which opened on Friday and would close on Tuesday the issue was subscribed 1.44 times on the first day. The price band is Rs 351-369.

The week ahead sees the issue from Allied Blenders and Distillers Limited open on Tuesday the 25th of June and close on Thursday the 27th of June. The issue consists of a fresh issue of Rs 1,000 crores and an offer for sale of Rs 500 crores in a price band of Rs 267-281.

The company has a distillery in the state of Telangana and 32 bottling plants across the country. Its brand ‘OFFICERS CHOICE’ has been the world’s largest-selling whisky by volume during 2016-2019.

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The company has been under stress and is raising money through the IPO to retire debt to the extent of Rs 720 crores. Further, prior to going public, the promoter has rationalised the board and separated ownership and management. The new board is entirely professional and would entail a saving of rupees 93 crores in terms of compensation to promoters going forward.

The repayment of interest and this compensation would entail a total saving of over rupees 200 crores in the financial year ending March 25. This would change the financials of the company which has just about been positive.

Considering the infrastructure, prospects post rationalisation and improvement in margins, it appears an investment which is warranted considering rising demand, socio-economic acceptance of liquor and growing aspirations.

The second issue is from Vraj Iron and Steel Limited which is tapping the capital markets with its fresh issue of rupees 171 crores in a price band of Rs 195-207. The issue opens on Wednesday the 26th of June and closes on Friday the 28th of June. The company manufactures M S Billets and TMT bars and uses the sponge iron route for doing so.

It is located in Chhattisgarh and has its plants at Raipur and Bilaspur. To better use the flue gas, it has a waste recovery plant and generates power which helps in the reduction of cost. The object of the issue is to raise money for the expansion of sponge iron capacity and MS Billets at Bilaspur and repayment of a loan taken from the bank for funding this project in the interim.

The issue is attractively priced and offers scope for appreciation in the medium term. There could also be listing gains looking at the market mood.

The week ahead sees June futures expire on Thursday. The current value of the June series at 23,501.10 points is 1,012.45 points or 4.50 per cent higher than the start of the series. Bulls are very well placed currently and have the upper hand considering we have a mere four days to expiry.

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Even though markets seem to be tiring out and are finding it difficult to hold on, the momentum and the fact that it’s a mere four days to go, would ensure that they win the series. They may at best concede some ground. One needs to remember that FPIs have been covering their shorts this series after the results of the general elections were announced on 4th June.

Markets seem to be trading in a broad range where 23,650-23,700 is a top at the moment on NIFTY and 22,800-850 a bottom. These levels seem difficult to be taken out currently and it should be a tough time to break out. The biggest driver in the immediate future is the budget which could happen during the period 18th-23rd July. This event has the potential to make the markets break in either direction.

The strategy for the week ahead would be to remain cautious with expiry happening. The bears led by FPIs will try to bounce back to the extent possible. Further there would be little or no news flow as well. Sector rotation is already happening and new stock ideas are difficult to come by. In such a scenario its advisable to play safe and take some money off the table. Keep the money aside for a day when new ideas emerge.

In conclusion, trade cautiously in a week where volatility is likely to rise on account of expiry as the bulls and bears intensify their action.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)

–IANS

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Adani Group's Vizhinjam Port receives first mothership, puts India in world league

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Thiruvananthapuram, July 11 (IANS) Adani Group’s Vizhinjam Port, India’s first trans-shipment port near Kovalam Beach in Kerala, received its first mothership on Thursday.

‘San Fernando’, a vessel of the world’s second-largest shipping company Maersk, arrived at the port country with over 2,000 containers on it, thus creating history.

The giant vessel was given the traditional water salute following which it berthed successfully.

With the arrival of the first mother ship, Adani Group’s Vizhinjam Port has catapulted India into the world port business as globally this port will rank 6th or 7th.

Those present to receive the mothership included State Ports Minister V.N. Vasavan, officials from the Adani Port and senior state government officials.

The official function will take place on Friday. It will be attended by Union Minister for Ports, Shipping and Waterways Sarbananda Sonowal, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and Adani Ports and SEZ Ltd (APSEZ) Managing Director Karan Adani.

Soon after the official inauguration, the mothership will move to its next destination at Colombo and after that many more ships are scheduled to arrive with cargo.

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Friday will mark the official completion of the first phase of the port, which has a 3,000-metre breakwater and 800-metre container berth ready.

Of the 32 cranes required, all but one have come. A 1.7 km approach road for connectivity is almost complete, while the office building, security area and electric lines are all ready.

Another feature of this port is that it is the first semi-automated container terminal in the country and will also be a global bunkering hub, supplying clean and green fuels like hydrogen and ammonia. Full-fledged commercial operations in the port are slated to begin in a few months.

The second and third phase of the project is planned to be completed in 2028 and will be one of the greenest ports in the world.

The port is also strategically located as it is just 10 nautical miles from the International Shipping Route connecting Europe, the Persian Gulf and the Far East.

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–IANS

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Retail inflation for industrial workers declines to 4-month low

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New Delhi, July 11 (IANS) Retail inflation for industrial workers eased to a 4-month low of 3.86 per cent in May compared to 4.42 per cent in the same month a year ago, according to the latest data released by the Labour Ministry.

The Consumer Price Index-Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) has been steadily declining since February this year and was 3.87 per cent in April 2024, figures compiled by the Labour ministry show.

The All-India CPI-IW for May 2024 increased by 0.5 points and stood at 139.9 points. It was 139.4 points in April 2024.

The fuel & light segment declined to 149.5 points in May from 152.8 points in April 2024.

The food and beverages group increased to 145.2 points in May from 143.4 points in April this year.

The Labour Bureau, under the Ministry of Labour & Employment, compiles the Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers every month on the basis of retail prices collected from 317 markets spread across 88 industrially important centres in the country.

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–IANS

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India to see rise in private consumption in FY25 driven by rural demand

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New Delhi, July 11 (IANS) Driven by rural demand recovery owing to normal monsoon and moderating inflation, India is projected to see a surge in private consumption in the current fiscal, a report has said.

According to India Ratings and Research, the rise in private consumption would lead to more balanced growth, reducing the disparity between premium and value segments.

According to the report, urban demand will also continue to grow but at a slower pace.

The growth disparity would moderate in FY25, exhibiting slightly more broad-based growth contours, said India Ratings.

There has been a constant rise in rural consumption demand in recent years.

Riding on a revival in rural demand and steady urban growth, the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector in India is also projected to see a revenue growth of 7-9 per cent this fiscal.

According to a recent Crisil Ratings’ study of 77 FMCG companies, “We expect volume growth of 6-7 per cent in fiscal 2025 from the rural consumers (40 per cent of overall revenue), supported by expectation of better monsoon benefitting agricultural production, and hike in minimum support price supporting farm incomes.

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According to the report, higher government spending on rural infrastructure, primarily through Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana-Grameen (PMAY-G) for affordable houses, will aid higher savings in rural India, supporting their ability to spend more.

On the other hand, according to the Crisil report, volume growth from urban consumers will remain steady at 7-8 per cent during fiscal 2025 supported by rising disposable incomes and continued focus on premium offerings by the players, especially in the personal care and home care segments.

The food and beverages (F&B) segment is expected to grow 8-9 per cent this fiscal, aided by improving rural demand.

–IANS

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Five automakers to recall over 1,56,000 cars for faulty parts

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Seoul, July 11 (IANS) Kia, Nissan Korea and three other carmakers will voluntarily recall more than 1,56,000 vehicles due to faulty components, the transport ministry here said on Thursday.

The five companies, also including Hyundai Motor Co., Porsche Korea and Toyota Motor Korea Co., will recall 1,56,740 units of 32 different models, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said in a statement.

The problems that prompted the recall include poor durability of the electronic control hydraulic unit of 1,39,478 units of the Sorento SUV model, reports Yonhap news agency.

Also, 8,802 vehicles across eight Nissan models, including the Q50 model, were found to have defective manufacturing of the propeller shaft.

Hyundai’s luxury brand Genesis will recall 2,782 GV70 units due to defective engine ignition connection bolts. Porsche Korea will recall 2,054 vehicles across 17 models, including the 911 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet, due to a safety issue involving the lane-keeping function.

Toyota Korea will recall 737 vehicles across three models, including the Prius 2WD, due to a defect in the rear door external handle, the ministry said.

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–IANS

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OECD brands New Zealand as a 'red tape country'

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Wellington, July 11 (IANS) New Zealand is a country full of regulatory barriers, said a survey released by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Thursday.

New Zealand Minister for Regulation David Seymour stressed the need for New Zealand’s regulatory reform, citing areas that are found to be particularly overregulated including barriers to foreign direct investment, acquiring licences and permits, and administrative and regulatory burden.

“It is too difficult to invest, and Kiwis have their productivity sapped because of the time spent complying with edicts from Wellington,” Seymour said.

The result from the five-yearly OECD Product Market Regulation Indicators should end any and all doubt that the government must go to war on red tape and regulation, he said.

The quality of regulation in New Zealand is in freefall, from being ranked second in 1998 to twentieth in this year’s survey, he said, adding that it is no coincidence that New Zealand experienced strong productivity growth in the 1990s but has fallen behind since.

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The Ministry for Regulation aims to cut existing red tape with sector reviews, to improve the scrutiny of new laws, and to improve the capability of the regulatory workforce.

“The culture of lawmaking needs real change, so Kiwis spend less time complying, and more time doing. The end result is higher wages and lower living costs,” the minister said.

The OECD survey, of about 1,000 questions, assesses the degree to which policies and regulations promote or inhibit competition in product markets.

–IANS

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