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Market volatility may lead to more correction in coming week

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New Delhi, March 17 (IANS) The week gone by was extremely volatile and choppy. We began with a correction. Then a corrective up move, followed by a sharp correction, yet another corrective up move and then yet another correction.

Though markets gained on two of the five trading sessions and lost on three, the intensity of the fall has shaken the markets. It appears the momentum is lost and probably enough signals are available to indicate some more correction in the coming week.

One normally associates Friday the 13th as an ill-omen. This time we had a double whammy where markets fell sharply on the 13th and then fell again the following Friday (March 15).

So, in short the 13th and Friday individually hit the markets quite sharply. BSESENSEX lost 1,475.96 points or 1.99 per cent to close at 72,643.43 points while NIFTY lost 470.20 points or 2.09 per cent to close at 22,023.35 points.

The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 2.35 per cent, 2.6 per cent and 2.94 per cent respectively. There was worse to follow in BSEMIDCAP which lost 4.02 per cent and BSESMALLCAP which was down 5.91 per cent. Very clearly the beating in midcap and small cap was quite severe.

The Indian Rupee lost 14 paisa or 0.17 per cent to close at Rs 82.88 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones lost on two of the five sessions and gained on three. It closed virtually flat, down 8.38 points or 0.02 per cent to close at 38,714.77 points. What is becoming worrisome in the US is once again inflation, and with present levels, it appears that the rate cut would just get postponed.

Elections to the Lok Sabha have been announced and they will be held in seven phases beginning with the first phase being held on April 19. The remaining phases will be on April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25 and June 1. Counting would be held on June 4.

With the poll notification having been issued, the code of conduct is applicable with immediate effect and one would see political parties get to work on the business end of the elections.

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Primary markets saw a lot of activity in the week gone by. We had three listings of equity and one of a road Invit, one other issue which saw its issue open and close for subscription, and one other issue which had opened for subscription but would close on Monday.

The first share to list was from R.K. Swamy who had issued shares at Rs 288. The listing price was at Rs 252, a discount of Rs 36 or 12.5 per cent. After a volatile day where the high and low was Rs 284.5 and Rs 248, the share closed debut day at Rs 263.25, a loss of Rs 24.75 or 8.59 per cent.

By the end of the week, the share recovered to close at Rs 279.40, a loss of Rs 8.60 or 2.99 per cent.

The other listing on Tuesday was from Bharat Invit, which had allotted units at Rs 100. The unit debuted at Rs 101.10 and closed on debut day at Rs 103.05, a gain of Rs 3.05 or 3.05 per cent.

This instrument has some unique features as all the underlying assets are of ‘HAM’ projects where there is no risk of toll collections. Second, the income and expense of the trust is linked to a floating rate of interest which makes the yield insulated from rate fluctuations. The Invit closed on Friday at Rs 103.40 a gain of Rs 3.40 or 3.40 per cent.

The second listing was from JG Chemicals Limited which listed on Wednesday and had a tepid listing.

The debut price was Rs 211 for the company which had issued shares at Rs 221. The loss was Rs 10 or 4.52 per cent. The share closed day one with further losses at Rs 184.80, a loss of Rs 36.20 or 16.38 per cent. It regained some ground over the next two days and closed Friday at Rs 194.85, a loss of Rs 26.15 or 11.83 per cent.

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The third listing was from Gopal Snacks Limited which happened on Thursday (March 14). The company had issued shares at Rs 401, and the share debuted at Rs 350, a loss of Rs 51.

By the end of the day, the share gained some ground and closed at Rs 360.05, a loss of Rs 40.95 or 10.21 per cent. On Friday, the share recovered some ground and closed at Rs 378.70, a loss of Rs 22.30 or 5.56 per cent.

The issue from Popular Vehicles and Services Limited, a two-wheeler, three-wheeler, four-wheeler and commercial vehicles distributor from South India tapped the capital markets with its fresh issue of Rs 250 crore and an offer for sale of 1,19,17,075 equity shares in a price band of Rs 280 to 295.

The issue had a tough time and managed to get subscribed on the basis of response from QIBs. The issue was subscribed 1.24 times overall with QIB portion subscribed 1.92 times, HNI undersubscribed at 0.67 times and Retail portion subscribed 1.07 times. There were 1.35 lakh applications.

The issue from Krystal Integrated Services Limited opened on Thursday (March 14) and would close on Monday (March 18). The issue consists of a fresh issue of Rs 175 crore and an offer for sale of 17.5 lakh shares in a price band of Rs 680 to 715.

At the end of the second day of bidding, the issue was subscribed 0.72 times with QIB portion subscribed 0.57 times, HNI portion subscribed 1.19 times and Retail portion subscribed 0.6 times. There were 32,989 applications till the end of day two.

Primary markets on the main board seem to have reached a level from where they are headed downhill. Performance of newly listed shares is not making money for investors who are allotted shares.

Subscription levels have dropped significantly and when issue after issue lists and trades at a discount, it’s time that merchant bankers and promoters take a hard look at their asking price. While one may always argue that investment in primary issues is not about first day exit, but that is what it has all become about.

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More than 50 per cent of investors on day one change hands and it’s only the new set of investors who join on day one, who have any sort of holding period in the company going forward. If sanity does not come in sooner than later, we would again see a large period of lull where there are no issues tapping the main board.

The week ahead would be choppy and volatile and would trade with a negative bias. The movement over the previous week has seen markets getting shaken and losing momentum.

While the bounce on Thursday made people believe that the worst is over, the fall on Friday has caused concern once again. It makes sense to lighten one’s exposure in the markets as we approach the end of the financial year 2023-2024 and enter the election period as well.

There is multiple resistance between the current levels of the indices on the way upward till the top of 74,245 points on BSESENSEX and 22,526 points on NIFTY, and we have just one support on the downside around 21,825-21,860 points on NIFTY.

Last Wednesday we touched a level of 21,905 points before we bounced on Thursday. The safety factor is not too big. If this were to break we would have a newer target of around 21,450-500 points which could cause a sharp correction in next to no time.

The strategy for the week ahead would be to remain in large cap stocks and use any rallies in the market to sell midcap and small cap stocks. There would be no policy statements going forward as the poll notification has happened and results for the fourth quarter and year ended March 24 are roughly four weeks away.

Brace for a volatile week and use rallies to sell and only sharp dips to do select purchases in the large cap space.

Trade cautiously.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)

–IANS

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This symptomless herpes virus can harm newborns, organ transplant & HIV patients

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New Delhi, July 6 (IANS) Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a common and symptomless herpes virus that can cause serious harm to newborn babies and people with impaired immune systems like organ transplant and HIV patients, said experts here on Saturday.

CMV belongs to the herpes virus family and can infect people of all ages. It spreads through body fluids and usually remains dormant, causing no symptoms or a mild illness characterised by fever, sore throat, fatigue, or swollen glands.

But it can prove to be risky for some people. CMV is the most commonly transmitted virus to a developing foetus.

In people with weaker immune systems, CMV can produce serious symptoms affecting the eyes, lungs, oesophagus, intestines, stomach, or liver.

“If a pregnant woman contracts CMV for the first time during pregnancy (primary infection), there is a risk of transmitting the virus to the unborn baby. This can result in congenital CMV infection, which may cause developmental problems, hearing loss, vision impairment, and other serious health issues in the baby,” Dr Neha Rastogi Panda, Consultant-Infectious Diseases, Fortis Memorial Research Institute, Gurugram, told IANS.

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“CMV is a common virus that infects over 90 per cent of the Indian population during pregnancy (intrauterine) or early childhood. While typically harmless in healthy individuals, CMV can become a serious threat to people with HIV/AIDS or those undergoing organ transplants (especially kidney and bone marrow). In these cases, the virus can reactivate and cause a range of health problems,” added Dr Rajeev Gupta, Director – Internal Medicine at the CK Birla Hospital (R), Delhi.

CMV in people with low immunity on steroids, cancer, and dialysis can reactivate and cause symptoms like fever, pneumonia, gastrointestinal symptoms, and visual effects and problems.

Dr Neha said that CMV is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in people with weakened immune systems.

While there is no widely available vaccine specifically to prevent the initial infection with CMV, antiviral medications administered during organ transplant procedures significantly reduce the risk of CMV reactivation.

The doctors called for maintaining hygiene by washing hands regularly, practising safe sex, not sharing items like toothbrushes, and avoiding contact with bodily fluids.

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–IANS

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FM Sitharaman to present Union Budget on July 23

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New Delhi, July 6 (IANS) Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget 2024-25 on July 23, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju announced on Saturday.

The Budget Session of Parliament will start on July 22 and extend till August 12.

“Hon’ble President of India, on the recommendation of the Government of India, has approved the proposal for summoning of both the Houses of Parliament for the Budget Session, 2024 from 22nd July 2024 to 12 August 2024 (Subject to exigencies of Parliamentary Business). Union Budget, 2024-25 will be presented in Lok Sabha on 23 July 2024,” the Parliamentary Affairs Minister said on X.

After having presented an interim budget ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, the Finance Minister will now present the full budget for 2024-25 that ensures the economy continues on the high growth trajectory and creates more jobs during the Modi 3.0 government.

Given the low fiscal deficit, the hefty Rs 2.11 lakh crore dividend from the RBI and the buoyancy in taxes, the Finance Minister has a lot of headroom for pushing ahead with policies aimed at accelerating growth and implementing social welfare schemes aimed at uplifting the poor.

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Prime Minister Modi has already declared that “the next 5 years will be a decisive fight against poverty.”

Sitharaman will be presenting the budget at a time when the Indian economy has clocked a robust 8.2 per cent growth in 2023-24, which is the fastest among the world’s major economies, and inflation coming down to below 5 per cent. The RBI has stated that the economy is headed to an over 8 per cent growth trajectory.

The fiscal deficit has also been reduced from more than 9 per cent of GDP in 2020-21 to the targeted level of 5.1 per cent for 2024-25. This has strengthened the macroeconomic fundamentals of the economy. S&P Global Rating raised India’s sovereign rating outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’, citing the country’s improving finances and strong economic growth.

–IANS

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Luxury housing surged to 41 pc of total sales in H1 2024 in India

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New Delhi, July 6 (IANS) India’s real estate market witnessed higher luxury housing sales in H1 2024 due to the robust economy and growing demand for luxury lifestyles.

A new report from property consultant firm Knight Frank titled ‘India Real Estate: Residential and Office (January – June 2024),’ said that luxury residential sales surged in the first half of 2024.

Housing sales above Rs 1 crore accounted for 41 per cent of total sales in H1 2024.

This figure was 30 per cent in the same period in 2023.

In the first half of 2024, residential sales in the top eight cities of the country, including Mumbai, Delhi-NCR, Bengaluru, Pune, and Hyderabad, have seen an increase of 11 per cent compared to the same period last year.

A total of 1,73,241 homes were sold in H1 2024, the highest sales figure in 11 years.

According to the report, 27 per cent of total residential sales in the first six months of 2024 were budget homes, while the figure was 32 per cent in the same period of 2023.

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Mumbai is the largest residential market in the country and 47,259 houses were sold in H1 2024.

Demand for houses costing more than Rs 1 crore in the country’s financial capital has increased by 117 per cent compared to last year.

During this period, there was an increase of 16 per cent in sales on an annual basis.

While 28,998 units have been sold in Delhi-NCR, 27,404 units have been sold in Bengaluru.

These three cities account for 59 per cent of total residential sales.

Gulam Zia, Senior Executive Director, Research, Advisory, Infrastructure, and Valuation, Knight Frank India said, “The robust performance in the residential market resulted in the sale of over 1,73,000 units in the first half of 2024, marking a decade-high record. This growth is firmly anchored by the premium category which saw a significant rise moving from 15 per cent in H1 2018 to 34 per cent in H1 2024.”

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“Looking forward, we understand that the economic conditions will remain stable with the Indian economy continuing to grow, we expect sales momentum to remain robust for the rest of the year,” he added.

–IANS

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FPIs infuse Rs 7,962 crore in equity this month, Rs 6,304 crore in debts

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New Delhi, July 6 (IANS) Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 7,962 crore in equity this month (till July 5) while their debt investments in the same period stood at Rs 6,304 crore, market watchers said on Saturday, citing the NSDL data.

This year, FPIs have invested Rs 11,162 crore in equity till now while the FPI investment in debt for the same period stands at a massive Rs 74,928 crore.

The inclusion of Indian government bonds in the JP Morgan Emerging Markets (EM) Government Bond Index and the front-running by investors have contributed to this divergence in equity and debt inflows, according to market experts.

Milind Muchhala, Executive Director, Julius Baer India, said India remains an attractive investment destination amid a healthy economic and earnings growth momentum, and the FPIs cannot afford to ignore the markets for too long.

“In the event of a global risk-on environment, triggered by increasing expectations of rate cuts, it could lead to increasing flows to EM equities, with India expected to emerge as one of the bigger beneficiaries of the flows,” he added.

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In the fortnight ending June 30, FPIs bought heavily in telecom and financial services.

They were also buyers in autos, capital goods, healthcare and IT.

Selling was seen in metals, mining and power which had run up, too, fast in recent months.

–IANS

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More foreign firms enlist to invest in India as infra projects fuel growth

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New Delhi, July 6 (IANS) More large foreign manufacturers of heavy machinery used in the infrastructure sector figure in the list of more than 15,000 companies that have registered to set up units in the country during June, according to data compiled by the ministry of corporate affairs.

Senior officials see this as the outcome of the increasing demand for such machinery as the government is making massive investments in highways, ports, airports and railway projects.

It also reflects the success of the Government’s Make-in-India and Aatmanirbhar policy that encourages foreign companies to start operations in the country, an official said.

UK’s Auger Torque Europe Ltd, one of the foreign companies which has registered for starting operations in India, manufactures earth drills and attachments and is part of Germany’s Kinshofer Group which makes attachments for truck cranes and excavators.

Japan’s Tomoe Engineering Co Ltd, which is on the new list, manufactures machinery, equipment and chemicals.

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Another Japanese company, Kawada Industries, Inc. is part of the KTI Kawada Group, which is the business of building, maintaining and preserving infrastructure.

Besides, a Russian heavy machinery manufacturer and a UAE-based energy company have also registered to set up operations in India.

Institut fuer Oekologie, Technik and Innovation Gmbh, also in the new list of foreign companies keen to set up base in India, provides testing and certification services for different industries.

These foreign companies are expected to bring in new technology and will complement the efforts of Indian companies that are operating in the infrastructure sector, a senior official pointed out.

Big-ticket infrastructure projects in the highways, railways and ports sector will continue to drive growth in the Indian economy as the Government has stepped up the outlay for these investments in the interim budget for 2024-25.

Government investments in large infrastructure projects create jobs and incomes that have a multiplier effect on the economy as demand for products such as steel and cement also goes up which leads to more private investments and employment. With the creation of additional jobs, the demand for consumer goods also increases leading to a further acceleration in the country’s economic growth rate.

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To ramp up the virtuous cycle of investment and job creation, the budget for 2023-24 had ramped up the capital expenditure outlay on infrastructure projects by 37.4 per cent to a whopping Rs 10 lakh crore from Rs 7.28 lakh crore in 2022-23.

The interim budget presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has further enhanced by 11.1 per cent the allocation for infrastructure projects to a whopping Rs 11.11 lakh crore to spur growth. The increase that comes on top of a large base of the previous year will result in massive investments to spur growth. The finance minister pointed out that this will also attract big investments from the private sector which will accelerate the growth momentum.

The interim budget provides for a Rs 2.52 lakh crore capital expenditure for Railways in 2024-25. The finance minister has announced the implementation of three major economic railway corridor programmes namely energy, mineral and cement corridors; port connectivity corridors; and high traffic density corridors.

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–IANS

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