Businesses
Correction and consolidation ahead, trade cautiously
New Delhi, April 14 (IANS) The week gone by had four trading sessions in which markets gained on two and lost on two. At the end of it all, benchmark indices ended virtually flat but gave loud indications that all is not well.
As one reads the news, Iran has attacked Israel with suicide drones and missiles and also declared that as far as they are concerned this was in retaliation to the attack on their embassy, and it’s all over. While the UN Security Council has called for an emergency session which will be held late in the night, the outcome would be known only when one reads the newspapers tomorrow or the Internet.
BSESENSEX lost 3.32 points or 0.00 per cent to close at 74,244.90 points while NIFTY lost 5.70 points or 0.03 per cent to close at 22,519.40 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 0.22 per cent, 0.12 per cent and 0.15 per cent. BSEMIDCAP gained 0.19 per cent while BSESMALLCAP lost 0.35 per cent.
What is significant is the fact that new highs were made on the first two days of the week. The high on BSESENSEX was 75,124.28 points while it was at 22,775.70 points on NIFTY. Looking at the developments, which will be discussed later, for the immediate week, these highs look too far away and unlikely to be crossed in a jiffy.
The Indian Rupee lost 11 paise or 0.13 per cent to close at Rs 83.41 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones too had a torrid week and lost on four of the five trading sessions and was flat on one. Suffice to say that at the present moment, the high of 39,887 points made on March 21 looks like a distant dream.
Rate cuts, an expectation which was driving markets, have been dashed to the ground. This has happened because the economy is in fine fettle and inflation which has been a key concern, is refusing to moderate. In such a scenario, rate cuts in the immediate short term should be ruled out.
Our markets began their upward journey with expectation of results for the five state assemblies which were to be declared in the first week of December 2023. The benchmark indices on Friday, November 24, 2023, were at 65,970.04 points on the BSESENSEX and 19,794.70 points on NIFTY.
At the end of the next week on December 1, they had moved to 67,481.19 points and 20,267.90 points. Exit polls were announced post-market closing on Friday, December 1, and results were declared on Sunday, December 3. In the week ended Friday, December 8, markets had moved to 69,825.60 points and 20,969.40 points respectively.
Gains in the two-week period were 3,855.56 points or 5.84 per cent in BSESENSEX and at 1,174.70 points or 5.93 per cent on NIFTY. Since then we have moved up much further, discounting the outcome of the general elections and gaining another 6.3 per cent on the BSESENSEX and 7.39 per cent on NIFTY.
Call it by any name, markets need a correction as there is virtually no space for further upside right away.
Shares of Bharti Hexacom Limited who had issued shares at Rs 570, were listed on Friday, April 12. Shares ended day one with a fantastic appreciation and closed at Rs 813.75, a gain of Rs 243.75 or 42.76 per cent. The issue was an OFS of 15 per cent of the equity capital which was offered by the Government of India. The remaining 15 per cent of the equity or 7.5 crore shares are locked in for six months from the date of listing. One could be sure that looking at the share performance, the government would look to sell these shares when the opportunity arose.
In what could be termed as sheer coincidence, Vodafone Idea Limited, yet another telecom player is tapping the capital markets with its follow-on offer for Rs 18,000 crore in a price band of Rs 10-11. The issue would open on Thursday, April 18, and close on Monday, April 22.
The share price on BSE closed at Rs 12.96. The top end of the band offers an arbitrage of Rs 1.96 or 17.8 per cent while at the lower end of the band, the arbitrage is Rs 2.96 or an attractive 29.6 per cent.
The company has allotted shares worth Rs 1,200 crore to a vendor, ATC, a tower company towards pending dues at Rs 10. This was done about three weeks ago and I strongly believe this should be the price at which the company would allot shares to all applicants.
The present shareholding of the company is 32.3 per cent for the Vodafone group, 18.1 per cent for the Aditya Birla group and 33.1 per cent for the Government of India, while the public shareholders hold 16.5 per cent.
This issue would keep the markets engrossed and there would be various arbitrage opportunities available. While the share is traded in futures and options, it is currently in the banned stage as overall exposure has crossed the limits of the exchange for the scrip.
The Mauritius double tax treaty has seen a change being introduced where the PPT (principal purpose test) has been made a key for the purpose of lower tax being applicable or not.
The ramifications of this treaty are yet to be known, but on the very first day itself, there was large selling by FPIs who sold shares worth Rs 8,000 crore on a net basis. Details of the policy have begun to trickle in on Friday.
The current global scenario, US FED and expectations of interest rates being cut being dashed, geo-political news being disturbed with first Ukraine-Russia, then Israel and Gaza and now Israel and Iran with the Houthis thrown in as a bonus, is keeping the pot boiling.
Crude is once again threatening to move towards the three-digit mark with gold having made a new high. All of this points to uncertain times and the fact that global markets cannot make new highs in such times. We need stability and a period of consolidation.
TCS has declared results for the 4th quarter and year ended March 24. There is improvement and order flows have certainly improved.
Looking at the large size of TCS, one cannot take this as indicative of the entire IT space and one certainly needs to know how the mid-tier and small IT companies would fare. One would have to wait for results from some more companies before coming to a decision.
Coming to the markets, expect them to remain volatile and under pressure. As of the time of writing this article, all indications are towards a gap-down opening on Monday.
One will have to burn the midnight oil or have an early rise tomorrow to see the outcome of the UN Security Council special session outcome. Irrespective of anything, there is an escalation of tension and this leads to uncertainty. Uncertainty is bad for markets.
The strategy for the week ahead, which has four trading sessions with a festival holiday on Wednesday, is to sell on sharp rallies and buy only on sharp dips. The focus should be on large-cap and select mid-cap stocks.
As markets are overdue for correction and consolidation, allow markets to find their own levels. There is no need to push the pedal in buying. Trading and buying opportunities would be available.
In terms of resistance, the highs made on Tuesday at 75,124 and 22,775 points acted as strong resistance. Similarly, the previous lows made at 21,900 points and around 72,000 points would act as strong supports.
Trade cautiously.
(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)
–IANS
arun/sd
Businesses
Investors’ wealth eroded by a massive Rs 9.19 lakh crore
Investors’ wealth eroded by a massive Rs 9.19 lakh crore on Tuesday as markets came under heavy sell-off with the BSE benchmark index Sensex falling 930.55 points.
Extending its previous day’s decline, the BSE Sensex plummeted 930.55 points or 1.15 per cent to settle at 80,220.72. During the day, it tanked 1,001.74 points or 1.23 per cent to 80,149.53.
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms eroded by Rs 9,19,374.52 crore to Rs 4,44,45,649.22 crore (USD 5.29 trillion). “There has been no respite from FIIs selling in local equities in the current month so far, which has been creating uncertainty among domestic investors.
Also, foreign investors are fleeing Indian equities to invest in relatively cheaper locations such as China, especially after the stimulus announcement by its government to boost its slowing economy.
“Along with sectoral stocks, mid and smallcap stocks too bore the brunt as persistent buying had led to valuations in several stocks getting expensive and hence the breather,” Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research) at Mehta Equities Ltd, said.
From the 30 Sensex pack, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Power Grid, Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, Bajaj Finance and Reliance were among the biggest laggards. In contrast, ICICI Bank, Nestle and Infosys were the gainers from the pack.
Businesses
NITI Aayog shares a $300 billion economy roadmap for Mumbai Metropolitan Region
Mumbai, Aug 22 (IANS) The NITI Aayog in its presentation to the Maharashtra government on Thursday suggested a roadmap for the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) to become a $300 billion economy by 2030 from the present $140 billion.
NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam during his meeting with Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy CMs Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar, suggested that the state can achieve this ambitious target with the promotion of MMR as global services’ hub, affordable housing and slum rehabilitation, tourism, port-proximate integrated manufacturing and logistics hub, planned urbanisation and intensive transport oriented development, sustainability projects and world-class urban infrastructure and transport.
NITI Aayog has said that the state government can attract a private investment of $125-135 billion, incremental GDP growth of $130-150 billion and additional capital by the state government of the order of Rs 50,000 crore over 5-6 years to chase the goal of making MMR a $300 billion economy.
“MMR is a $140 billion economy across 5 districts and covering 9 municipal corporations with a 25.8 million population and 10 million jobs. Good news is that MMR is on a positive growth trajectory on the back of $50 billion ongoing infrastructure investments. Our vision is to grow MMR into a $300 billion economy by 2030 and $1.5 trillion economy by 2047,” said Subrahmanyam in the presentation.
According to NITI Aayog, MMR has a potential to become a global services hub due to the existing two world-class business districts, Wadala and BKC for financial services and after the development of Navi Mumbai Aerocity as a global aviation city.
It has suggested that the rehabilitation of 2.2 million slums will create new housing stocks in addition to around 1 million affordable housing for low income and middle income group segments.
NITI Aayog has suggested the state can promote two themed tourism development hubs at Gorai and Madh and Alibaug and implement a masterplan for a 300 km coastline.
Further, the MMR can promote port proximate integrated manufacturing and logistic hub with the development of Kharbav integrated logistic cluster as a multi-modal logistic park, circular economy parks and electronic manufacturing and manufacturing cluster for white goods assembly at Khalapur-Panvel section.
In the wake of the development of Rs 76,000 crore Vadhavan port, NITI Aayog has suggested that it can be exploited for the promotion of green hydrogen, steel, chemicals, integrated textiles and apparels.
Further, the NITI Aayog has suggested that the government should release a slew of policies for services, tourism, affordable housing, and transport-oriented development. In addition, the government will have to craft investment promotion and land allocation policy, simplified and enabling urban planning policies, women-inclusivity blueprint and Green MMR policy.
Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has said that the government is focusing on the construction of affordable housing, development of a data center in Navi Mumbai, and completion of Alibaug Multimodal Corridor. Recently, the state government has cleared projects with an investment of Rs 80,000 crore. The government has stepped up efforts to promote tourism along the 720 km coastline.
(Sanjay Jog can be contacted at sanjay.j@ians.in)
–IANS
sj/pgh
Businesses
Finance Ministry sees food inflation easing further on back of better monsoon
New Delhi, Aug 22 (IANS) Inflationary pressures in the Indian economy eased in July and food inflation is expected to come down further with this year’s better monsoon leading to higher agricultural production, according to the Finance Ministry’s monthly review released on Thursday.
Retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index eased from 5.1 per cent in June 2024 to 3.5 per cent in July 2024, the lowest since September 2019.
This was mainly due to a significant fall in food inflation. It declined to 5.4 per cent in July 2024 from 9.4 per cent in June 2024, the review states.
The substantial fall witnessed in food inflation was helped majorly by a decline in vegetable inflation from 29.3 per cent in June 2024 to 6.8 per cent in July 2024 and mild deflation in ‘oils and fats’ and spices.
On the other hand, core inflation (which excludes food and fuel) was at a moderate level of 3.3 per cent in July 2024.
Overall, the retail inflation rate moderated to 4.6 per cent in the first four months of FY25 as compared to 5.3 per cent in FY24 (April-July), according to the review.
With moderate core inflation and positive progress in the monsoon, the headline inflation outlook is positive. Assuming a normal monsoon, CPI inflation for FY25 is projected at 4.5 per cent by the RBI, with Q2 inflation at 4.4 per cent.
A steady progress in the southwest monsoon has supported agricultural activity. The cumulative southwest monsoon rainfall was 3 per cent higher than the long-period average up to August 19, 2024. Further, the spatial distribution has improved, with 84 per cent of subdivisions receiving normal or excess rainfall. This has enabled healthy Kharif sowing.
As of August 16, the actual sowing area under total foodgrains was 4.8 per cent higher than the corresponding period of the previous year, while progress in cereals and pulses was 4.6 per cent and 5.7 per cent higher than the previous year.
Corresponding to healthy progress in monsoon, availability of water level in reservoirs improving, ensuring water adequacy for irrigation during current Kharif and upcoming rabi crop production. The storage availability in 150 reservoirs as of August 15, was 111 per cent of the corresponding period of last year and 114 per cent of the average storage of the last ten years, according to the Central Water Commission. This augurs well for healthy food production that will aid in cooling food inflation in the upcoming months. Further, to enhance productivity and resilience in the agriculture sector, various measures have been announced in the Union Budget FY25, the Finance Ministry said.
–IANS
sps/vd
Businesses
Indian economy is on upswing: Finance Ministry
New Delhi, Aug 22 (IANS) The Indian economy experienced a notable upswing across various economic indicators in July 2024, signalling strong and resilient business activities with both the manufacturing and services sectors posting a robust performance, according to the Finance Ministry’s monthly review released on Thursday.
“The month saw impressive milestones being reached, substantial growth in GST collections, and a significant rise in e-way bill generation, which points to an overall increase in economic activity. The stock market indices also reached record highs in July,” the review states.
On balance, India’s economic momentum remains intact. Despite a somewhat erratic monsoon, reservoirs have been replenished. Manufacturing and services sectors are expanding, going by the Purchasing Managers’ indices. Tax collections – especially indirect taxes, which reflect transactions – are growing healthily, and so is bank credit, according to the review.
Inflation is moderating, and exports of both goods and services are doing better than they did last year. Stock markets are holding on to their levels. Foreign direct investment is looking up as gross inflows are rising, the review states.
Gross GST collections for July 2024 maintained their momentum, achieving their second-highest level since May 2023. The total gross GST revenue rose by 10.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY), bringing the total for FY 25 (April to July) to Rs 7.4 lakh crore.
This increase in GST collections also highlights robust compliance and expansion of GST coverage across various economic activities.
The upward level shift is reflected in the average monthly GST collections rising from Rs 1.68 lakh crore in FY24 to Rs 1.85 lakh crore in FY25.
The year-on-year increase in e-way bills reached a nine-month peak of 19.2 per cent with the total number of e-way bills issued in July surging to 10.5 crore, setting a new single-month record.
According to the review, the manufacturing sector has continued to demonstrate robust performance in the first four months of FY25, as evidenced by the strong performance of various high-frequency indicators.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Manufacturing, a crucial gauge of the economic vitality of the manufacturing sector, stood at 58.1 in July 2024, significantly above the series long-run average and among the highest recorded in recent years. This expansion, driven by buoyant demand conditions and a surge in production volumes, bodes well for the overall health of the economy.
Similarly, the service sector continued to perform well.
PMI services remained in an expansionary zone at 60.3 in July 2024, driven by expansion in international sales, an increase in new order uptakes, and a rise in new export orders.
Despite a rise in wages and material costs which pushed up business expenses, overall sentiment in the services sector remains upbeat, driven, among others, by an upswing in the tourism cum hotel industry induced by leisure travel, business travel, and social events, the Finance Ministry said.
–IANS
sps/pgh
Businesses
Sensex closes 147 pts up 81,053, Nifty above 24,800
Mumbai, Aug 22 (IANS) Indian stock markets again closed higher on Thursday due to positive sentiment in the markets.
At closing, Sensex was up 147 points, or 0.18 per cent, at 81,053 and Nifty was up 41 points or 0.17 per cent at 24,811.
The market’s positive sentiment was bolstered by optimistic global cues, particularly from the US markets, where the S&P 500 extended its winning streak, reflecting investor confidence amid expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
During the day, Sensex traded in the range of 80,954 to 81,236 and Nifty traded in the range of 24,784 to 24,867.
In the Sensex pack, Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, Titan, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Maruti Suzuki and SBI were the top gainers. Tata Motors, M&M, Wipro, NTPC, TCS, Power Grid, Sun Pharma, Axis Bank, and Nestle are the top losers.
Thursday’s market rally was led by Nifty Bank which settled up 300 points or 0.59 per cent at 50,985.
Among the sectoral indices, PSU Bank, fin service, FMCG, metal, realty and Private bank were the major gainers. Pharma, IT and energy were the major laggards.
An upward trend was also seen in small and medium stocks in the trading session. The Nifty midcap 100 index was up 400 points or 0.69 per cent at 58,844 and the Nifty smallcap 100 index was at 19,099, up 32 points or 0.17 per cent.
According to market experts, the domestic market witnessed modest gains owing to positive global sentiments.
“Particularly, the recent signs of weakness in the US non-farm payroll data have strengthened the case for potential interest rate cuts in September. However, in the broader market, investors are being cautious, opting for a selective approach, awaiting more clarity from central bank leaders in Japan and the US,” they added.
–IANS
avs/vd
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