New Delhi, July 7 (IANS) The French are voting on Sunday in the second round of the crucial parliamentary elections, with President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists in a tacit alliance of convenience with the second-placed hard-left ensemble to ward off the far-right, which topped the first round. But does Macron’s second risky gambit in two months – “a second grenade” – have any chance of success?

The chances appear minimal in the high-stakes election, which will not only determine his – and France’s – fate but is likely to impact that of Europe and the European Union.

Smarting from his party’s defeat to the far-right in the European Parliament elections in June, Macron took a major gamble. His largely unilateral decision to call snap parliamentary elections, seemingly leaving his own government taken aback – as per their shocked expressions in a photo of the cabinet meeting – was reportedly likened by him to throwing “an unpinned grenade at their (far-right’s) feet”.

However, the explosion seems to have backfired – quite spectacularly – on Macron and his party.

Le-Pen’s party surged far ahead to end up with almost a third of the vote in an election, which saw the highest turnout in several decades, the New Popular Front, of a gamut of Left parties, was in second place, and Macron’s Ensemble the distant third with just a fifth of the vote.

Following this, came Macron’s second desperate gambit or “second grenade” – of entering into a loose alliance with the Left alliance to prevent division of votes and set up one-to-one contests against the National Rally in the second round.

While 289 seats are required to win a majority, the complex French political system entails a second round, in which candidates, whose support did not reach 12.5 per cent of all locally registered voters in the first round, are eliminated. Only those who secure 50 per cent of the vote with a turnout of at least one-fourth of the local electorate win automatically in the first round.

It is the second round, to slightly over 500 seats of the 577-member Assembly, that is taking place on Friday and is liable to throw up a range of outcomes.

One eventuality could be that Marie Le-Pen’s far-right National Rally, with the youthful Jordan Bardella its face, retains its surge to attain a majority – or get close to it – in the Assembly, despite the hastily cobbled-up alliance against it.

This was the likely prospect till a few days ago but seems a bit difficult now.

A final opinion poll, conducted by Ipsos-Talan for Le Monde, France Televisions and Radio France on Friday, had the National Rally peaking at around 210, followed by the New Popular Front approaching 180, but Macron’s Ensemble only near 140.

Even if the arrangement which saw either Macron’s Ensemble members or members of the Left alliance withdraw from nearly 300 of the 500 seats up for grabs in the second round to set up a one-to-one fight with Le-Pen’s party, succeeds, the beneficiary will not be Macron himself.

This particular outcome is also predicated on the ability of Macron’s party and the Left to ensure the seamless and comprehensive transfer of votes to each other’s remaining candidate and whether the people will accept it, It must be recalled that Macron, till the first round, was telling the people that the victory of either the far-right or the hard left was likely to lead to a “civil war” in the nation.

Even if, the centrists and the resurgent left manage a majority, it makes for an uneasy alliance between the two forces, and in any way, hamstring Macron’s ability to pass legislation. Cohabitation, as this eventuality is generally called, with different parties holding the presidency and the majority in the parliament is not unprecedented in French politics, having occurred thrice in the previous four decades – and not very successfully.

It happened twice in the term of Socialist President Francois Mitterrand (1981-95), when he had to share power with conservative Prime Ministers Jacques Chirac (1986-88) and Edouard Balladur (1993-95). Chirac, who became President himself in 1995, faced the same situation in 1997-2002 when his decision to call a snap parliamentary election led to the victory of the socialists led by Lionel Jospin.

It is Chirac’s step that Macron seems to have followed but only time will reveal the particular outcome for him.

However, while Macron has asserted his intention to remain President till the end of his term in 2027, irrespective of the result of the parliamentary election, the victory of his antagonists – whether from left or right – would shadow his remaining years in power, given he cannot call another election for another year.

Grenades can be rather unpredictable weapons, as Macron is learning – much to his present disadvantage and to his legacy.

(Vikas Datta can be contacted at vikas.d@ians.in)

–IANS

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Kathmandu, July 7 (IANS) At least 15 more people have been killed in landslides and floods in Nepal in the past two days, police said on Sunday.

The rain-induced disasters, previously, had killed 48 people in the country since the monsoon season set in on June 10, Xinhua news agency reported.

Incessant monsoon rains since Friday evening have created havoc across Nepal, leaving 15 dead, two missing and 17 others injured in landslides and floods, said Dan Bahadur Karki, the spokesperson for Nepal Police.

He told Xinhua that at least 125 families have been displaced, hundreds of livestock killed, and some highways across the country blocked due to landslides and floods in the last two days.

Parts of Kathmandu, Nepal’s capital, have been inundated.

As the rainfall is continuing, the loss of lives and property is likely to increase, Karki said.

–IANS

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Paris, July 7 (IANS) The second and decisive round of France’s snap legislative elections began on Sunday in Metropolitan France for voters to elect the remaining 501 members of the 577-seat French National Assembly.

According to the results published by the French Interior Ministry, the French far-right wing party National Rally (RN) was leading the first round of the elections held on June 30, taking 37 seats, reports Xinhua news agency.

Following the RN, the New Popular Front (NFP), the left-wing parties’ electoral alliance, won 32 seats, while French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition only gained two seats.

Five other deputies from various right and extreme right parties were also elected during the first round.

France has a long history of preventing far-right wing parties from taking power, but according to a survey published by consulting firm Elabe on Friday, 33 per cent of the French voters want the RN to obtain the largest number of seats in the National Assembly this time, 24 per cent for the NFP, and only 18 per cent for Macron’s centrist coalition.

To stop the RN from gaining the absolute majority, the NFP and Macron’s coalition announced that their candidates who entered the second round in third place would renounce their candidacy to not split anti-RN votes.

Any party that wants to form a government should hold an absolute majority of 289 seats in the 577-member Assembly. The latest projections show that the RN would win the most seats in the National Assembly but not an absolute majority.

No matter which side wins the legislative elections, Macron has already announced that he will continue his second presidential term until the end of 2027.

Physical attacks targeting 51 candidates were registered during the campaign period before the second round, French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said on Friday, adding that nearly 30 suspects were arrested across the country.

Given the possibility of riots following the announcement of the election results, Darmanin said that nearly 30,000 police officers would be deployed across France on Sunday, including 5,000 in Paris and its suburbs.

Polling booths are open for the 49.5 million registered voters from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time, while in major cities such as Paris, Lyon and Marseille, the booths will close at 8 p.m. local time.

–IANS

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Kabul, July 7 (IANS) Afghanistan’s central bank announced in a statement that it will inject $15 million on Monday into the local market to boost the national currency afghani.

“The bidders including moneychangers and private banks should deposit the necessary money in cash in the form of afghani in the central bank, Da Afghanistan Bank,” the statement added, reports Xinhua news agency.

According to the statement, the bank was requesting all eligible banks, foreign exchanges and monetary service providers to participate in the auction.

The bank also auctioned $15 million last week.

Afghanistan’s central bank has injected millions of dollars into the money exchange market over the past two and half years, aiming at preventing the devaluation of the afghani.

The Afghan caretaker government, since assuming power in August 2021, has taken a series of measures to maintain the stability of the afghani against foreign currencies.

–IANS

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Seoul, July 7 (IANS) South Korea’s Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, on Sunday, instructed officials to take emergency containment measures as authorities confirmed more cases of African swine fever (ASF) at a pig farm in a southeastern county.

The instruction came after this year’s sixth case of the virus, which is deadly to pigs but not harmful to humans, was confirmed at the farm raising some 900 pigs in Yecheon County, 161 kilometres southeast of Seoul, reports Yonhap News Agency.

Han ordered authorities to take relevant measures, including culling, a standstill order and an epidemiological analysis, the Prime Minister’s office said in a statement.

A standstill order has been issued in Yecheon and six other counties and cities nearby, including Andong and Yeongju, through 6 a.m. Monday.

Authorities plan to conduct an epidemiological investigation, cull pigs at the farm, and disinfect the site and nearby roads.

The agriculture ministry said the culling is not expected to impact the supply of pork in the local market, noting that the farm in question raised just 0.008 per cent of the total number of pigs in the country.

–IANS

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