Businesses
Budget: A little for all, but wait for a long haul
New Delhi: The week gone by was dramatic in more ways than one. Markets lost on the first four days of the week and extended losses for five consecutive days before a complete turnaround happened on Friday, which was the first day of the August futures series.
Incidentally, the Union Budget was declared on Tuesday and markets were on a losing streak before and after the announcement. Losses in the first four days of the week were covered and converted from negative to positive by much more than the losses.
The gains on Friday were 1,292 points on BSESENSEX and 429 points on NIFTY. At the end of the action-packed week, BSESENSEX ended with gains of 728.07 points or 0.90 per cent while NIFTY gained 303.45 points or 1.24 per cent to close at 24,834.35 points.
The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.65 per cent, 1.83 per cent and 1.92 per cent respectively.
BSEMIDCAP was up 3.13 per cent while BSESMALLCAP was up 3.45 per cent. The week ended with gains in one trading session and losses in four sessions. FPIs incidentally bought on Monday and Friday and were sellers on the remaining three days.
The Indian Rupee lost seven paisa or 0.08 per cent. It closed at Rupees 83.73 to the US Dollar. Dow gained on three of the five trading sessions and lost on two. It gained 301.79 points or 0.75 per cent to close at 40,589.34 points.
One wonders whether the US markets follow India or vice-versa. However, one thing is clear there is a correlation between the two and that the same is very close. On Friday we saw a sharp rally in Indian bourses and that reversed the losses for the week and enabled markets to close in the positive. The same happened in the US as well with Dow gaining 654 points on Friday. This would be something which should be watched closely going forward.
Tuesday, the 23rd of July, saw the Union Budget being presented for the financial year 2024-2025. The Union Budget made special mention of the stock markets which have been doing very well over the last eight months or so.
In poetic justice, it had a little for everything in the market. The tax on the long-term capital gains tax was raised to 12.5 per cent. Similarly, the short-term capital gains tax was raised to 20 per cent. STT or securities transaction tax on F&O has been doubled.
Finally, the incidence of tax on buyback of shares which was earlier on the company, has now been logically shifted to the individual taxpayer and would be treated as long-term capital gains tax.
This last provision corrects the earlier illogical tax on the company. It also throws open the possibility of promoters and companies using buybacks as a way to reward shareholders and one would see many companies using this as a way of rewarding shareholders.
This would help improve the earnings of companies, increase the promoter’s shareholding, and reduce the floating stock of the company. A win-win for all concerned.
Besides the markets, the budget had a little for many different stakeholders. Farmers, employment, skilling of citizens, infrastructure, industry and salaried class were all covered.
There is relief for the bottom of the pyramid taxpayer with benefits of Rupees twenty-five thousand in tax relief and marginal benefit in the lower tax slabs as well.
Customs duty on gold and silver has been brought down to 6 per cent. This would be a big blow to the smuggling of gold which had become rampant with quite a few people smuggling small quantities as couriers which included them carrying within their body.
One broad theme which could play out as one of the most favoured sectors, post-budget, is the affordable housing sector. Companies involved in real estate dealing with affordable housing, housing finance companies providing loans and even NBFCs and banks in this segment would become the flavour of the year.
It’s a big segment and one would have to pick and choose the best from a big pool of companies. From an overall point of view, the best part of the budget was that against popular belief and perception, this was not a populist budget and this saw markets heave a sigh of relief. One did not see freebies galore being announced.
Thursday, the 25th of July, saw July futures expire. The series saw gains of 361.70 points or 1.50 per cent to end at 24,406.10 points. It was an action-packed series that saw new highs being made repeatedly, culminating with the presentation of the Union Budget.
In primary market news, we had the listing of Sanstar Limited which had issued shares at Rs 95 list on Friday, the 26th of July. The share hit a high of Rs 127.68 after debuting at Rs 106.40 on BSE. The share closed the day at Rs 115.09, a gain of Rs 20.09 or 21.15 per cent.
There is one IPO from Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Limited which is opening its issue on Tuesday the 30th of July and closing on Thursday the 1st of August. The issue consists of a fresh issue of Rupees 680 crores and an offer for sale of 1,73,30,435 equity shares in a price band of Rs 646-679. Because of INDAS accounting rules, the company had to make provisions on account of put and call options which resulted in significantly lower profits than actual. Post the IPO, these provisions would be reversed which would then reflect the true performance of the company.
The company is a CDMO player and is currently the 25th-ranked player globally. They have large capacities in Uttarakhand and had acquired the facilities of an earlier listed player from that area, Parabolic Drugs Limited.
While the integration is complete, they still need to ramp up these facilities along with the facilities of the company, quite significantly. This ramp-up is likely to take anywhere between 9 to 18 months before the potential is reached.
Based on the numbers of the company and the fact that the balance sheet and profit and loss for the last reported accounts of March 24 include the provisions as stated above, it makes no sense to discuss them here as the PE is negative.
Considering the prospects of the pharma industry, its nature of being a defensive sector and our markets currently grappling with high and unsustainable valuations, this issue looks decent from a medium-term investment. There could be listing pop as well. Investment with a medium-term objective is warranted for reasonable returns.
In the week ahead we will have many more companies having their roadshows and then opening their issues. Two of them have announced their dates but not the price band. These are the issues from Ceigall India Limited which would open on Thursday the 1st of August and close on Monday the 5th of August.
The issue consists of a fresh issue of Rupees 684.25 crores and an offer for sale of 141.74 lakh shares. The price band would be publicly announced on Monday morning. The company is an infrastructure company making roads.
The second issue is from Ola Electric Mobility Limited which will be opening on Friday the 2nd of August and closing on Tuesday the 6th of August. The issue consists of a fresh issue of Rupees 5,500 crores and an offer for sale of 8.49 crore shares.
The price band will be advertised on Monday the 29th of July. The company has a market share of 50 per cent in the EV scooter space and it reported revenues of Rs 5,243 crores for the year ended March 24 against Rs 2,782 crores for the previous year.
Losses for the period rose to Rs 1,584 crores against Rs 1,472 crores. The issue would be an interesting one with a lot of activity considering that the EV space is exciting and in the news. Further, this would be the first company from this space in India that is also into the manufacture of batteries and cells for the EV.
Coming to the markets in the week ahead, one would expect them to consolidate around these levels after the great start to the August futures series on Friday.
Valuations are a concern currently and the results in the quarter so far are not the best that one expected or have been seen. The growth seems to be slowing for sure and therefore future valuations are getting that much more expensive.
Secondly, there are no short to medium-term triggers or news flow for the markets which could be a rallying point. The US FED meets next week for its six weekly review meetings. Looking at the red-hot economy and data emerging from the US, it is almost unlikely that any sort of rate cut could happen now or any time soon. How US markets react to this news will be known in three trading sessions.
The strategy for the week would be to continue to book profits and take money off the table. With NIFTY making a new closing high on Friday, there could be some more juice or steam left in the rally but the risk-reward ratio is against the bulls. Book profits and look for pockets where opportunity arises.
With markets tilting towards the long side, there could be sharp corrections as and when they happen. If no stock ideas emerge, bide your time. It would be better than being fully invested at such elevated levels.
Trade cautiously.
–IANS
arun/dan
Businesses
Investors’ wealth eroded by a massive Rs 9.19 lakh crore
Investors’ wealth eroded by a massive Rs 9.19 lakh crore on Tuesday as markets came under heavy sell-off with the BSE benchmark index Sensex falling 930.55 points.
Extending its previous day’s decline, the BSE Sensex plummeted 930.55 points or 1.15 per cent to settle at 80,220.72. During the day, it tanked 1,001.74 points or 1.23 per cent to 80,149.53.
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms eroded by Rs 9,19,374.52 crore to Rs 4,44,45,649.22 crore (USD 5.29 trillion). “There has been no respite from FIIs selling in local equities in the current month so far, which has been creating uncertainty among domestic investors.
Also, foreign investors are fleeing Indian equities to invest in relatively cheaper locations such as China, especially after the stimulus announcement by its government to boost its slowing economy.
“Along with sectoral stocks, mid and smallcap stocks too bore the brunt as persistent buying had led to valuations in several stocks getting expensive and hence the breather,” Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research) at Mehta Equities Ltd, said.
From the 30 Sensex pack, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Power Grid, Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, Bajaj Finance and Reliance were among the biggest laggards. In contrast, ICICI Bank, Nestle and Infosys were the gainers from the pack.
Businesses
NITI Aayog shares a $300 billion economy roadmap for Mumbai Metropolitan Region
Mumbai, Aug 22 (IANS) The NITI Aayog in its presentation to the Maharashtra government on Thursday suggested a roadmap for the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) to become a $300 billion economy by 2030 from the present $140 billion.
NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam during his meeting with Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy CMs Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar, suggested that the state can achieve this ambitious target with the promotion of MMR as global services’ hub, affordable housing and slum rehabilitation, tourism, port-proximate integrated manufacturing and logistics hub, planned urbanisation and intensive transport oriented development, sustainability projects and world-class urban infrastructure and transport.
NITI Aayog has said that the state government can attract a private investment of $125-135 billion, incremental GDP growth of $130-150 billion and additional capital by the state government of the order of Rs 50,000 crore over 5-6 years to chase the goal of making MMR a $300 billion economy.
“MMR is a $140 billion economy across 5 districts and covering 9 municipal corporations with a 25.8 million population and 10 million jobs. Good news is that MMR is on a positive growth trajectory on the back of $50 billion ongoing infrastructure investments. Our vision is to grow MMR into a $300 billion economy by 2030 and $1.5 trillion economy by 2047,” said Subrahmanyam in the presentation.
According to NITI Aayog, MMR has a potential to become a global services hub due to the existing two world-class business districts, Wadala and BKC for financial services and after the development of Navi Mumbai Aerocity as a global aviation city.
It has suggested that the rehabilitation of 2.2 million slums will create new housing stocks in addition to around 1 million affordable housing for low income and middle income group segments.
NITI Aayog has suggested the state can promote two themed tourism development hubs at Gorai and Madh and Alibaug and implement a masterplan for a 300 km coastline.
Further, the MMR can promote port proximate integrated manufacturing and logistic hub with the development of Kharbav integrated logistic cluster as a multi-modal logistic park, circular economy parks and electronic manufacturing and manufacturing cluster for white goods assembly at Khalapur-Panvel section.
In the wake of the development of Rs 76,000 crore Vadhavan port, NITI Aayog has suggested that it can be exploited for the promotion of green hydrogen, steel, chemicals, integrated textiles and apparels.
Further, the NITI Aayog has suggested that the government should release a slew of policies for services, tourism, affordable housing, and transport-oriented development. In addition, the government will have to craft investment promotion and land allocation policy, simplified and enabling urban planning policies, women-inclusivity blueprint and Green MMR policy.
Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has said that the government is focusing on the construction of affordable housing, development of a data center in Navi Mumbai, and completion of Alibaug Multimodal Corridor. Recently, the state government has cleared projects with an investment of Rs 80,000 crore. The government has stepped up efforts to promote tourism along the 720 km coastline.
(Sanjay Jog can be contacted at sanjay.j@ians.in)
–IANS
sj/pgh
Businesses
Finance Ministry sees food inflation easing further on back of better monsoon
New Delhi, Aug 22 (IANS) Inflationary pressures in the Indian economy eased in July and food inflation is expected to come down further with this year’s better monsoon leading to higher agricultural production, according to the Finance Ministry’s monthly review released on Thursday.
Retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index eased from 5.1 per cent in June 2024 to 3.5 per cent in July 2024, the lowest since September 2019.
This was mainly due to a significant fall in food inflation. It declined to 5.4 per cent in July 2024 from 9.4 per cent in June 2024, the review states.
The substantial fall witnessed in food inflation was helped majorly by a decline in vegetable inflation from 29.3 per cent in June 2024 to 6.8 per cent in July 2024 and mild deflation in ‘oils and fats’ and spices.
On the other hand, core inflation (which excludes food and fuel) was at a moderate level of 3.3 per cent in July 2024.
Overall, the retail inflation rate moderated to 4.6 per cent in the first four months of FY25 as compared to 5.3 per cent in FY24 (April-July), according to the review.
With moderate core inflation and positive progress in the monsoon, the headline inflation outlook is positive. Assuming a normal monsoon, CPI inflation for FY25 is projected at 4.5 per cent by the RBI, with Q2 inflation at 4.4 per cent.
A steady progress in the southwest monsoon has supported agricultural activity. The cumulative southwest monsoon rainfall was 3 per cent higher than the long-period average up to August 19, 2024. Further, the spatial distribution has improved, with 84 per cent of subdivisions receiving normal or excess rainfall. This has enabled healthy Kharif sowing.
As of August 16, the actual sowing area under total foodgrains was 4.8 per cent higher than the corresponding period of the previous year, while progress in cereals and pulses was 4.6 per cent and 5.7 per cent higher than the previous year.
Corresponding to healthy progress in monsoon, availability of water level in reservoirs improving, ensuring water adequacy for irrigation during current Kharif and upcoming rabi crop production. The storage availability in 150 reservoirs as of August 15, was 111 per cent of the corresponding period of last year and 114 per cent of the average storage of the last ten years, according to the Central Water Commission. This augurs well for healthy food production that will aid in cooling food inflation in the upcoming months. Further, to enhance productivity and resilience in the agriculture sector, various measures have been announced in the Union Budget FY25, the Finance Ministry said.
–IANS
sps/vd
Businesses
Indian economy is on upswing: Finance Ministry
New Delhi, Aug 22 (IANS) The Indian economy experienced a notable upswing across various economic indicators in July 2024, signalling strong and resilient business activities with both the manufacturing and services sectors posting a robust performance, according to the Finance Ministry’s monthly review released on Thursday.
“The month saw impressive milestones being reached, substantial growth in GST collections, and a significant rise in e-way bill generation, which points to an overall increase in economic activity. The stock market indices also reached record highs in July,” the review states.
On balance, India’s economic momentum remains intact. Despite a somewhat erratic monsoon, reservoirs have been replenished. Manufacturing and services sectors are expanding, going by the Purchasing Managers’ indices. Tax collections – especially indirect taxes, which reflect transactions – are growing healthily, and so is bank credit, according to the review.
Inflation is moderating, and exports of both goods and services are doing better than they did last year. Stock markets are holding on to their levels. Foreign direct investment is looking up as gross inflows are rising, the review states.
Gross GST collections for July 2024 maintained their momentum, achieving their second-highest level since May 2023. The total gross GST revenue rose by 10.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY), bringing the total for FY 25 (April to July) to Rs 7.4 lakh crore.
This increase in GST collections also highlights robust compliance and expansion of GST coverage across various economic activities.
The upward level shift is reflected in the average monthly GST collections rising from Rs 1.68 lakh crore in FY24 to Rs 1.85 lakh crore in FY25.
The year-on-year increase in e-way bills reached a nine-month peak of 19.2 per cent with the total number of e-way bills issued in July surging to 10.5 crore, setting a new single-month record.
According to the review, the manufacturing sector has continued to demonstrate robust performance in the first four months of FY25, as evidenced by the strong performance of various high-frequency indicators.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Manufacturing, a crucial gauge of the economic vitality of the manufacturing sector, stood at 58.1 in July 2024, significantly above the series long-run average and among the highest recorded in recent years. This expansion, driven by buoyant demand conditions and a surge in production volumes, bodes well for the overall health of the economy.
Similarly, the service sector continued to perform well.
PMI services remained in an expansionary zone at 60.3 in July 2024, driven by expansion in international sales, an increase in new order uptakes, and a rise in new export orders.
Despite a rise in wages and material costs which pushed up business expenses, overall sentiment in the services sector remains upbeat, driven, among others, by an upswing in the tourism cum hotel industry induced by leisure travel, business travel, and social events, the Finance Ministry said.
–IANS
sps/pgh
Businesses
Sensex closes 147 pts up 81,053, Nifty above 24,800
Mumbai, Aug 22 (IANS) Indian stock markets again closed higher on Thursday due to positive sentiment in the markets.
At closing, Sensex was up 147 points, or 0.18 per cent, at 81,053 and Nifty was up 41 points or 0.17 per cent at 24,811.
The market’s positive sentiment was bolstered by optimistic global cues, particularly from the US markets, where the S&P 500 extended its winning streak, reflecting investor confidence amid expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
During the day, Sensex traded in the range of 80,954 to 81,236 and Nifty traded in the range of 24,784 to 24,867.
In the Sensex pack, Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, Titan, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Maruti Suzuki and SBI were the top gainers. Tata Motors, M&M, Wipro, NTPC, TCS, Power Grid, Sun Pharma, Axis Bank, and Nestle are the top losers.
Thursday’s market rally was led by Nifty Bank which settled up 300 points or 0.59 per cent at 50,985.
Among the sectoral indices, PSU Bank, fin service, FMCG, metal, realty and Private bank were the major gainers. Pharma, IT and energy were the major laggards.
An upward trend was also seen in small and medium stocks in the trading session. The Nifty midcap 100 index was up 400 points or 0.69 per cent at 58,844 and the Nifty smallcap 100 index was at 19,099, up 32 points or 0.17 per cent.
According to market experts, the domestic market witnessed modest gains owing to positive global sentiments.
“Particularly, the recent signs of weakness in the US non-farm payroll data have strengthened the case for potential interest rate cuts in September. However, in the broader market, investors are being cautious, opting for a selective approach, awaiting more clarity from central bank leaders in Japan and the US,” they added.
–IANS
avs/vd
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