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After the rally last week, will markets scale new highs?

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After the rally last week, will markets scale new highs?

Mumbai, Feb 18 (IANS) Markets in the week gone by were volatile and choppy. On more than one occasion during the week one saw opening losses being wiped out and similarly profits too being wiped out.

At the end of the week, we saw markets gaining on four of the five trading sessions and losing on one. BSE Sensex gained 831.15 points or 1.16 per cent to close at 72,426.64 points while Nifty gained 258.20 points or 1.19 per cent to close at 22,040.70 points.

The broader markets saw BSE 100, BSE 200 and BSE 500 gain 1.26 per cent, 1.23 per cent and 1.08 per cent respectively. BSE Midcap gained 0.91 per cent while BSE Smallcap was up 0.02 per cent. The top sectoral gainer was BSE Auto which outperformed the broad markets and was up almost 5 per cent.

The Indian Rupee gained 2 paisa or 0.02 per cent to close at Rs 83.02. Dow Jones was choppy and gained on three of the five trading sessions, losing on two. At the end of the volatile week, Dow was marginally negative, losing 43.70 points or 0.11 per cent to close at 38,627.99 points.

The week gone by was full of listings and we had as many as five listings during the week. The first was from Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Limited which had issued shares at Rs 155. Shares of the company listed on Monday, February 12, and closed day one at Rs 203.45, a gain of Rs 48.45 or 31.25 per cent. By Friday, the shares lost some ground and closed at Rs 194.70, a gain of Rs 39.70 or 25.61 per cent.

Wednesday the 14th of February saw three listings and they were certainly not the best that one has seen in a very long time. The first was from RP Tech Limited which had issued shares at Rs 311. The discovered price was Rs 335, a gain of Rs 24 or 7.71 per cent. At the end of the day, the share closed substantially lower at levels of Rs 320.10, a gain of Rs 9.10 or 2.92 per cent. By the end of the week, the share gained substantially and closed at Rs 345.65, a gain of Rs 34.65 or 11.14 per cent.

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The second of Wednesday’s listings was from Capital Small Finance Bank Limited which had issued shares at Rs 468. The discovered price was Rs 435, a loss of Rs 33 or 7.05 per cent. The share slipped further during the day and made a low of Rs 421.10. It recovered from here to close around the open at Rs 436.05, a loss of Rs 31.95 or 6.82 per cent. At the end of the week, the share regained some ground and closed at Rs 449.25, a loss of Rs 18.75 or 4.01 per cent.

The third of Wednesday’s listings was from Jana Small Finance Bank Limited which had issued shares at Rs 414. The listing price was Rs 396, a loss of Rs 18 or 4.34 per cent. The share lost sharply as the day progressed and made a low of Rs 365. The share closed marginally higher than the low at Rs 366.80, a loss of Rs 47.20 or 11.40 per cent. During the remaining two days of the week the share regained lost ground and closed at Rs 419.5, a gain of Rs 5.05 or 1.22 per cent.

The fifth and final listing of the week was from Entero Healthcare services Limited which had issued shares at Rs 1,258. The discovered price was Rs 1,245, a loss of Rs 13 or just about 1 per cent. The share closed day one at Rs 1,149.50, a loss of Rs 108.50 or 8.62 per cent.

These four listings show one thing clearly that primary markets are overheated and the valuations which are being asked for are unrealistic in most cases. There is no comfort in the valuations and one bad day at the bourses can knock the company off its pedestal. Time for promoters and merchant bankers to pull up their socks and ensure that they and their clients do not become greedy or it would become a case of the chicken that lays the golden egg being slaughtered.

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There is one IPO from Juniper Hotels Limited which is tapping the capital markets. The issue consists of a fresh issue of Rs 1,800 crore in a price band of Rs 342-360. The issue would open on Wednesday (February 21), and close on Friday (February 23).

The company is the only hotel developer which has a 50:50 joint venture or partnership with a leading global hotel operator and is the only one of its kind in India. Further, there is no investment made by any global hotel operator in a hotel company in India.

The issue has 75 per cent reservation for QIBs, 15 per cent for HNIs and 10 per cent for retail as the company has not reported profits over the last three years. In terms of revenues, the company reported revenues of Rs 717.3 crore for the year ended March 23 and EBITDA of Rs 327.4 crore. EBITDA margin was at 45 per cent. The company has earned a negative EPS of Rs 13.88 in FY21, Rs 13.08 in FY22 and a much-improved negative Rs 0.10 for the year ended March 23.

The objects of the issue are to repay Rs 1,500 crore towards the company’s debt. This would lead to a profit in the next financial year simply because of interest costs on the retired debt being saved. The company is currently paying about 11 per cent on its debt. Post this payment, one would expect the debt rating of the company to also improve which would lead to savings and hence higher profits.

The company is comparable to its peers which include the Chalet Hotels, Indian Hotels, Lemon Tree and East India Hotels. Juniper Hotels is an asset heavy company and owns all the hotels which are currently managed by Hyatt. It would continue this model and remain an asset-owned hotel company.

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The company is in the midst of expanding its hotel, Grand Hyatt at Kalina, Mumbai, which would become the largest hotel in the country post the expansion. At present, the company has 1,836 keys in seven operating hotels, has a MICE area of 1.27 lakh sq. ft. and commercial space of 1.44 lakh sq. ft.

Juniper Hotels merits subscription looking at the opportunity that exists and the single largest benefits of becoming almost a debt free company post IPO and which has had a global hotel operator as its equal partner for 25 years.

Coming to the markets in the week ahead, expect markets to remain choppy and volatile. What has happened in the week gone by is the fact that markets have weathered the storm and have made a setup from where the all-time high can be challenged. Whether they will be crossed or not is another question.

The setup has become positive and there are possibilities that if the momentum continues, they could be crossed. As is expected in markets when a new high is made, markets become even more volatile and choppy. Already markets are in a choppy condition and with possibilities of new highs they would be choppier and even more volatile. Time therefore to become cautious. Trade with stop losses and refrain from taking large positions.

The strategy for the week would be to keep one eye on the indices and the other on traded volumes. At around new highs, volumes tend to increase sharply. The direction or trend of markets gives an indication of where they are then headed. Use sharp rallies to sell into the market what you own and refrain from shorting the markets. At the same time use only sharp dips to buy and that too from the large cap space only.

Trade cautiously.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)

–IANS

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Investors’ wealth eroded by a massive Rs 9.19 lakh crore

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Investors’ wealth eroded by a massive Rs 9.19 lakh crore on Tuesday as markets came under heavy sell-off with the BSE benchmark index Sensex falling 930.55 points.

 Extending its previous day’s decline, the BSE Sensex plummeted 930.55 points or 1.15 per cent to settle at 80,220.72. During the day, it tanked 1,001.74 points or 1.23 per cent to 80,149.53. 

The market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms eroded by Rs 9,19,374.52 crore to Rs 4,44,45,649.22 crore (USD 5.29 trillion). “There has been no respite from FIIs selling in local equities in the current month so far, which has been creating uncertainty among domestic investors.

 Also, foreign investors are fleeing Indian equities to invest in relatively cheaper locations such as China, especially after the stimulus announcement by its government to boost its slowing economy. 

 “Along with sectoral stocks, mid and smallcap stocks too bore the brunt as persistent buying had led to valuations in several stocks getting expensive and hence the breather,” Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research) at Mehta Equities Ltd, said. 

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 From the 30 Sensex pack, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Power Grid, Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, Bajaj Finance and Reliance were among the biggest laggards. In contrast, ICICI Bank, Nestle and Infosys were the gainers from the pack.

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NITI Aayog shares a $300 billion economy roadmap for Mumbai Metropolitan Region

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NITI Aayog shares a 0 billion economy roadmap for Mumbai Metropolitan Region

NITI Aayog shares a $300 billion economy roadmap for Mumbai Metropolitan Region

Mumbai, Aug 22 (IANS) The NITI Aayog in its presentation to the Maharashtra government on Thursday suggested a roadmap for the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) to become a $300 billion economy by 2030 from the present $140 billion.

NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam during his meeting with Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy CMs Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar, suggested that the state can achieve this ambitious target with the promotion of MMR as global services’ hub, affordable housing and slum rehabilitation, tourism, port-proximate integrated manufacturing and logistics hub, planned urbanisation and intensive transport oriented development, sustainability projects and world-class urban infrastructure and transport.

NITI Aayog has said that the state government can attract a private investment of $125-135 billion, incremental GDP growth of $130-150 billion and additional capital by the state government of the order of Rs 50,000 crore over 5-6 years to chase the goal of making MMR a $300 billion economy.

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“MMR is a $140 billion economy across 5 districts and covering 9 municipal corporations with a 25.8 million population and 10 million jobs. Good news is that MMR is on a positive growth trajectory on the back of $50 billion ongoing infrastructure investments. Our vision is to grow MMR into a $300 billion economy by 2030 and $1.5 trillion economy by 2047,” said Subrahmanyam in the presentation.

According to NITI Aayog, MMR has a potential to become a global services hub due to the existing two world-class business districts, Wadala and BKC for financial services and after the development of Navi Mumbai Aerocity as a global aviation city.

It has suggested that the rehabilitation of 2.2 million slums will create new housing stocks in addition to around 1 million affordable housing for low income and middle income group segments.

NITI Aayog has suggested the state can promote two themed tourism development hubs at Gorai and Madh and Alibaug and implement a masterplan for a 300 km coastline.

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Further, the MMR can promote port proximate integrated manufacturing and logistic hub with the development of Kharbav integrated logistic cluster as a multi-modal logistic park, circular economy parks and electronic manufacturing and manufacturing cluster for white goods assembly at Khalapur-Panvel section.

In the wake of the development of Rs 76,000 crore Vadhavan port, NITI Aayog has suggested that it can be exploited for the promotion of green hydrogen, steel, chemicals, integrated textiles and apparels.

Further, the NITI Aayog has suggested that the government should release a slew of policies for services, tourism, affordable housing, and transport-oriented development. In addition, the government will have to craft investment promotion and land allocation policy, simplified and enabling urban planning policies, women-inclusivity blueprint and Green MMR policy.

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has said that the government is focusing on the construction of affordable housing, development of a data center in Navi Mumbai, and completion of Alibaug Multimodal Corridor. Recently, the state government has cleared projects with an investment of Rs 80,000 crore. The government has stepped up efforts to promote tourism along the 720 km coastline.

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(Sanjay Jog can be contacted at sanjay.j@ians.in)

–IANS

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Finance Ministry sees food inflation easing further on back of better monsoon

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Finance Ministry sees food inflation easing further on back of better monsoon

Finance Ministry sees food inflation easing further on back of better monsoon

New Delhi, Aug 22 (IANS) Inflationary pressures in the Indian economy eased in July and food inflation is expected to come down further with this year’s better monsoon leading to higher agricultural production, according to the Finance Ministry’s monthly review released on Thursday.

Retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index eased from 5.1 per cent in June 2024 to 3.5 per cent in July 2024, the lowest since September 2019.

This was mainly due to a significant fall in food inflation. It declined to 5.4 per cent in July 2024 from 9.4 per cent in June 2024, the review states.

The substantial fall witnessed in food inflation was helped majorly by a decline in vegetable inflation from 29.3 per cent in June 2024 to 6.8 per cent in July 2024 and mild deflation in ‘oils and fats’ and spices.

On the other hand, core inflation (which excludes food and fuel) was at a moderate level of 3.3 per cent in July 2024.

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Overall, the retail inflation rate moderated to 4.6 per cent in the first four months of FY25 as compared to 5.3 per cent in FY24 (April-July), according to the review.

With moderate core inflation and positive progress in the monsoon, the headline inflation outlook is positive. Assuming a normal monsoon, CPI inflation for FY25 is projected at 4.5 per cent by the RBI, with Q2 inflation at 4.4 per cent.

A steady progress in the southwest monsoon has supported agricultural activity. The cumulative southwest monsoon rainfall was 3 per cent higher than the long-period average up to August 19, 2024. Further, the spatial distribution has improved, with 84 per cent of subdivisions receiving normal or excess rainfall. This has enabled healthy Kharif sowing.

As of August 16, the actual sowing area under total foodgrains was 4.8 per cent higher than the corresponding period of the previous year, while progress in cereals and pulses was 4.6 per cent and 5.7 per cent higher than the previous year.

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Corresponding to healthy progress in monsoon, availability of water level in reservoirs improving, ensuring water adequacy for irrigation during current Kharif and upcoming rabi crop production. The storage availability in 150 reservoirs as of August 15, was 111 per cent of the corresponding period of last year and 114 per cent of the average storage of the last ten years, according to the Central Water Commission. This augurs well for healthy food production that will aid in cooling food inflation in the upcoming months. Further, to enhance productivity and resilience in the agriculture sector, various measures have been announced in the Union Budget FY25, the Finance Ministry said.

–IANS

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Indian economy is on upswing: Finance Ministry

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Indian economy is on upswing: Finance Ministry

Indian economy is on upswing: Finance Ministry

New Delhi, Aug 22 (IANS) The Indian economy experienced a notable upswing across various economic indicators in July 2024, signalling strong and resilient business activities with both the manufacturing and services sectors posting a robust performance, according to the Finance Ministry’s monthly review released on Thursday.

“The month saw impressive milestones being reached, substantial growth in GST collections, and a significant rise in e-way bill generation, which points to an overall increase in economic activity. The stock market indices also reached record highs in July,” the review states.

On balance, India’s economic momentum remains intact. Despite a somewhat erratic monsoon, reservoirs have been replenished. Manufacturing and services sectors are expanding, going by the Purchasing Managers’ indices. Tax collections – especially indirect taxes, which reflect transactions – are growing healthily, and so is bank credit, according to the review.

Inflation is moderating, and exports of both goods and services are doing better than they did last year. Stock markets are holding on to their levels. Foreign direct investment is looking up as gross inflows are rising, the review states.

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Gross GST collections for July 2024 maintained their momentum, achieving their second-highest level since May 2023. The total gross GST revenue rose by 10.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY), bringing the total for FY 25 (April to July) to Rs 7.4 lakh crore.

This increase in GST collections also highlights robust compliance and expansion of GST coverage across various economic activities.

The upward level shift is reflected in the average monthly GST collections rising from Rs 1.68 lakh crore in FY24 to Rs 1.85 lakh crore in FY25.

The year-on-year increase in e-way bills reached a nine-month peak of 19.2 per cent with the total number of e-way bills issued in July surging to 10.5 crore, setting a new single-month record.

According to the review, the manufacturing sector has continued to demonstrate robust performance in the first four months of FY25, as evidenced by the strong performance of various high-frequency indicators.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Manufacturing, a crucial gauge of the economic vitality of the manufacturing sector, stood at 58.1 in July 2024, significantly above the series long-run average and among the highest recorded in recent years. This expansion, driven by buoyant demand conditions and a surge in production volumes, bodes well for the overall health of the economy.

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Similarly, the service sector continued to perform well.

PMI services remained in an expansionary zone at 60.3 in July 2024, driven by expansion in international sales, an increase in new order uptakes, and a rise in new export orders.

Despite a rise in wages and material costs which pushed up business expenses, overall sentiment in the services sector remains upbeat, driven, among others, by an upswing in the tourism cum hotel industry induced by leisure travel, business travel, and social events, the Finance Ministry said.

–IANS

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Sensex closes 147 pts up 81,053, Nifty above 24,800

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Sensex closes 147 pts up 81,053, Nifty above 24,800

Sensex closes 147 pts up 81,053, Nifty above 24,800

Mumbai, Aug 22 (IANS) Indian stock markets again closed higher on Thursday due to positive sentiment in the markets.

At closing, Sensex was up 147 points, or 0.18 per cent, at 81,053 and Nifty was up 41 points or 0.17 per cent at 24,811.

The market’s positive sentiment was bolstered by optimistic global cues, particularly from the US markets, where the S&P 500 extended its winning streak, reflecting investor confidence amid expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

During the day, Sensex traded in the range of 80,954 to 81,236 and Nifty traded in the range of 24,784 to 24,867.

In the Sensex pack, Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, Titan, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Maruti Suzuki and SBI were the top gainers. Tata Motors, M&M, Wipro, NTPC, TCS, Power Grid, Sun Pharma, Axis Bank, and Nestle are the top losers.

Thursday’s market rally was led by Nifty Bank which settled up 300 points or 0.59 per cent at 50,985.

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Among the sectoral indices, PSU Bank, fin service, FMCG, metal, realty and Private bank were the major gainers. Pharma, IT and energy were the major laggards.

An upward trend was also seen in small and medium stocks in the trading session. The Nifty midcap 100 index was up 400 points or 0.69 per cent at 58,844 and the Nifty smallcap 100 index was at 19,099, up 32 points or 0.17 per cent.

According to market experts, the domestic market witnessed modest gains owing to positive global sentiments.

“Particularly, the recent signs of weakness in the US non-farm payroll data have strengthened the case for potential interest rate cuts in September. However, in the broader market, investors are being cautious, opting for a selective approach, awaiting more clarity from central bank leaders in Japan and the US,” they added.

–IANS

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