International
Middle East: Lurching from crisis to crisis to the abyss edge after the Tehran attack?
New Delhi, Aug 5 (IANS) For close to a century now, the Middle East has been a restive and volatile region with inter-state conflicts a regular feature till the 1990s before the strife morphed into intra-state clashes, with some rare exceptions. However, in 2024, the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the Israeli-Lebanese border is threatening to widen into a larger war in the wake of the Tehran assassination.
The assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital, a few hours after he attended the inauguration ceremony of President Masoud Pezeshkian, has left the Iranian regime threatening Israel, which it blames for the incident, with “harsh punishment.”
The situation has been further exacerbated with the Hezbollah in Lebanon also vowing vengeance for the simultaneous assassination of its top operative Fuad Shukr in a Beirut airstrike.
However, there has been only plenty of hot rhetoric so far from Iran, which is seeking to bolster support from Arab nations and other countries before its planned strike — with the Jordanian Foreign Minister in Tehran on Sunday for discussions — as well as ratchet up apprehension in Israel.
As part of these mind games, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Intelligence Organisation’s former chief Hossein Taeb on Sunday claimed that Iran’s retaliatory response is going to “surprise” Israel.
Addressing a cultural event in Mashhad, he said that the operation that Iran has designed to take revenge will be “surprising” and won’t fall within the framework of the scenarios it can predict.
Significantly, in the discussion on the assassination in the UN Security Council, Iran’s Permanent Representative Amir Saeid Iravani, reserving his country’s “inherent right to self-defence in accordance with international law,” noted that it would respond when “it deems necessary and appropriate.”
The situation is thus different from April when Iran launched a massive drone and missile strike on Israel in response to the attack on its consulate in Syria that left some senior Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) officials dead. Jordan was then among the nations that swung into action to repel the attack — or the part that was in its airspace.
The attack was reportedly intimated to the US and other powers through third parties, but this time, the perceived provocation is bigger, and thus, liable to trigger a larger Iranian retaliation, which is likely to involve its “Axis of Resistance” allies like Hezbollah and the Houthis too.
With the US taking no chances, and rushing additional forces to the region, the situation has become more dire and any miscalculation in strike and response may have consequences that go beyond ostensibly well-calibrated strategies of Generals and politicians in the planning boards and meetings.
Meanwhile, the implications of the assassination are going to have implications that will be more pervasive, long-lasting, and largely negative.
Negotiations for a truce in Gaza are more or less stymied given the absence of Haniyeh, one of the key negotiators for Hamas, as well as the reluctance of Egypt and Qatar, the lead facilitators for the negotiations, to associate themselves further in the process in view of such “reckless” behaviour targeting the participants.
In Israel, the beleaguered Benjamin Netanyahu government can exult in the welcome optics of netting a brace of high-profile Hamas and Hezbollah targets, but will face more problems in the long run with more intractable — and invisible — foes to confront.
With Haniyeh, considered a pragmatist, if not moderate, and open to political solutions, no more there, the Hamas mantle could switch back to shadowy — and more unrestrained — figures like Yahya Sinwar, perceived as the mastermind of the October 7, 2023 attacks, or other leaders, who may be more unpredictable.
Haniyeh is likely to be replaced as political bureau chief with his predecessor, the more hawkish Khaled Meshal, himself the target of a bungled Israeli assassination plot decades back, and who has already staked out a maximalist position by refusing to recognise Israel.
On the larger canvas, the US, which has rushed reinforcements, will have to keep its attention and energy focussed on the Middle East – a situation that will be welcomed by geopolitical rivals China and Russia, as the US continues to be involved, or rather stuck, in the region’s volatile vortex, and will find it difficult to concentrate forces elsewhere.
Finally, the impact of a larger war in the oil-producing hub if all the sabre-rattling, and the retaliation and counter-retaliation, go out of control, could wreak havoc for the world, with the impact on production and transport of fuel supplies, given the chokepoints on both sides of the Arabian peninsula.
The consequences of any misstep by actors — regional or global — are too horrible to contemplate even as the prospects of a diplomatic settlement appear remote.
(Vikas Datta can be contacted at vikas.d@ians.in)
–IANS
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Vientiane (Laos), Aug 22 (IANS) Representatives from the Lao government and development partners have attended a conference here titled “Climate Change and Nutrition in Laos: Intersections and Interventions” to discuss the impact of climate change on nutrition in the Southeast Asia country and potential solutions.
Speaking at the conference, deputy director general of the Department of Hygiene and Health Promotion under the Lao Ministry of Health Viengkhan Phixay, said, “We gather to address a critical and interwoven issue: the impact of climate change on nutrition and how we can work together to tackle these challenges,” Xinhua news agency reported.
The Lao government is actively engaged in this endeavor, with numerous policies and initiatives aimed at addressing both climate change and nutrition, Lao National Television reported on Thursday.
“By leveraging the Scaling Up Nutrition network in Laos, which is led by the government, and supported by civil society, donors, and the United Nations, we have a robust platform to tackle the negative impacts of climate change while improving nutrition and overall health for everyone in Laos,” Viengkham said at the conference held on Monday.
The conference featured a series of presentations that not only detailed evidence-based research but also introduced innovative tools for measuring and enhancing nutrition under the impact of climate change.
The conference stressed the critical need for integrated approaches to tackle the intertwined challenges of climate change and nutrition, and setting the stage for impactful future collaborations.
–IANS
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Baghdad, Aug 22 (IANS) A civilian was killed while seven others were injured on Thursday in a tribal shootout in Iraq’s holy Shiite province of Najaf, according to a local security source.
The shootout erupted in the early hours between armed men from the local tribe in the al-Zarga area in northern Najaf, some 160 km south of Baghdad, a local police officer told Xinhua on condition of anonymity.
The clash resulted in the killing of an Iraqi civilian and the injury of seven others, including three Iranian Shiite pilgrims, the source added.
A joint force from the Interior Ministry’s emergency response division and Najaf provincial police arrested 53 gunmen from both sides of the shootout and seized weapons and ammunition, the Interior Ministry said in a statement.
It added that search operations are ongoing to locate additional gunmen and weapons, with more details to be released later.
The incident took place as numerous pilgrims traveled to the city of Karbala to observe Arbaeen, which marks the end of a 40-day mourning period for the killing of Imam Hussein, the grandson of Prophet Muhammad, in the Battle of Karbala in 680 A.D.
Typically, these pilgrims also visit Najaf as part of their journey to Karbala.
–IANS
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Dhaka, Aug 22 (IANS) Bangladesh’s interim government has sought $1 billion from the World Bank as budgetary support.
The call came from the country’s Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Adviser Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan’s meeting with Abdoulaye Seck, the World Bank’s Country Director for Bangladesh and Bhutan, in Dhaka on Wednesday.
He made the plea as the ministry owes more than 2 billion dollars to suppliers in import costs of power and energy, Xinhua news agency reported.
Khan mentioned that the interim government, which was formed with many pressing mandates, is due to settle a $2 billion debt left by the previous government in the power sector.
He said they have already suspended activities under the much-criticized Quick Enhancement of Electricity and Energy Supply Act 2010 and abolished the government’s power to set energy prices without any public hearing.
On August 5, the former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, was ousted from her country and power, ending her rule since January 2009.
This event was seen as a massive escalation, with what initially started as student’s protests and resulted in a major crisis in Bangladesh.
Earlier on August 8, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus took oath as the head of Bangladesh’s interim government.
–IANS
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Belgrade, Aug 22 (IANS) Serbian police are still searching for seven missing migrants in the Drina River after their boat capsized when crossing from Serbia to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia’s Interior Ministry confirmed in a press release issued on Thursday.
According to testimonies of the migrants who managed to reach the shore, there were approximately 25 people on board. So far, police and rescue teams have found 18 individuals, including three children, on the riverbank, Xinhua news agency reported.
Serbian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the Interior Ivica Dacic said police and the Emergency Situations Sector responded promptly after being alerted by the Bosnian border authorities early Thursday morning.
An intensive search is underway in the Drina River and its surrounding area.
The European Border and Coast Guard Agency, Frontex, reported a significant decrease in illegal border crossings in the Western Balkans during the first half of 2024.
The illegal crossings towards EU borders reached 12,407 between January and July 2024, a 75 per cent drop compared to the same period last year.
–IANS
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Islamabad, Aug 22 (IANS) Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, turned into a fortress on Thursday with dozens of containers forcing closure of several roads with heavy deployment of law enforcement forces following the cancellation of a No-Objection Certificate (NOC) of an anti-government protest planned by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and protest call by religious parties, including the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) under the banner of Majlis-e-Tahaffuz-e-Khatme Nabuwwat against a Supreme Court decision in the Mubarak Sani case.
Anticipating widespread protests, the local administration, which had cancelled the NOC, imposed Section 144 in the city, barring assembly of people and also closed all educational institutions for the day.
Later in the day, the PTI announced its decision to postpone its protest rally and rescheduled it for September 8.
The government maintained that it did not want to take any chance considering the Supreme Court hearing and also the presence of Bangladeshi cricket team in the country which is currently touring Pakistan for a Test series.
On Wednesday, the capital administration of Islamabad decided to cancel the NOC for PTI, less than 24 hours before the scheduled public gathering in Tarnol area. PTI had earlier announced that it would go ahead with its planned gathering even after its NOC was revoked.
“It is concerning that the government might try to exploit the rally to incite unrest and blame it on PTI. They are scared and are trying to find ways to orchestrate cases against us,” said senior PTI leader Azam Swati.
Imran Khan’s party has been struggling to hold a political gathering in the capital for the past five months with the local administration delaying grant of any permission to hold such an event. Even after a permission is granted, it ends up being revoked a few hours later.
The latest episode is the second time the capital administration has cancelled the NOC issued to PTI for holding a political gathering at Tarnol.
The government maintains that it had detailed meeting with the Inspector General Police, Deputy Commissioner, senior officers from the Chief Commissioner’s office, officials of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Military Intelligence (MI) and Intelligence Bureau (IB) after which it was decided that there will be serious law and order concerns if the gathering is allowed.
On the other hand, several religious parties have also taken to the streets in Islamabad, protesting against the Supreme Court of Pakistan’s verdict in the Mubarak Sani case.
Tehreek-e-Khatam-e-Nabuwat, an umbrella name for different religious parties, has called for a protest in front of the Supreme Court after the July 24 Supreme Court verdict in the case, maintaining and ruling that while Ahmadis are declared non-Muslims, they retain the right to profess and proliferate their religion, provided they do not publicly use Muslim terms or introduce themselves as Muslims.
In February 2024, Mubarak Ahmed Sani, an Ahmadi, was accused of violating the Punjab Holy Quran (Printing and Recording) Amendment) Act 2021 by distributing the proscribed book ‘Tafseer-e-Sagheer’. However, the Supreme Court maintained that the alleged act occurred in 2019, before it was criminalised in 2021.
The Supreme Court decision was widely criticized by the religious groups who demanded the federal and the Punjab government to challenge the decision and ensure punishment for Sani.
The Punjab government later filed a review petition in the Supreme Court while a petition was also filed by the Federal government on directions of the Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
–IANS
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